Don’t get carried away in the long frenzy: wait for BTC and others to pull back, wait for ETH and others to confirm, and shorts should hold off on revenge

BTC surged 7% toward $70k, while ETH jumped 18% to above $2,300. The entire crypto market suddenly regained its collective memory: just a few days ago, everyone was shouting “the bear market is here,” but now their feeds are already studying “the next bull market targets.”
But I believe the most important thing now is not predicting the next stop, but creating a trading plan.
This rally is indeed very strong. BTC briefly touched $70k, while large-scale short liquidations occurred across the market. There is nothing wrong with short-term strength, but a leverage-driven rally also means volatility could expand significantly.
So my strategy can be summed up in one sentence: don’t chase the hottest levels; wait for the market to create its own opportunities.
For BTC, $70k is the first hurdle. If it holds above that level, then pulls back to $67k–$70k and finds buying support, I will consider going long; if it continues to break above $73k on increased volume, I may follow the trend with a small position.
I will take profit in batches, locking in profits first at $73k–$75k and adjusting later according to the trend; stop-losses will be placed below key support levels, and I will exit once they are decisively broken.
For ETH, $2,300 is the key level to watch. After an 18% rise, I will not chase it directly. If it can hold after pulling back to $2,250–$2,300, I may consider entering in batches; if it falls below $2,200, I will stay on the sidelines for now. The market has also recently viewed $2,200 as an important support level for ETH.
As for shorts, I am choosing to “stay calm” for now.
Because “it has risen too much” has never been a short signal. What is truly worth shorting is a trend breakdown, a break below key support, and confirmation from volume and price. If you recklessly try to pick the top now, BTC may well teach you another lesson just after you open a short position.
Of course, if BTC falls below $67k on sustained heavy volume and ETH simultaneously loses $2,200, the nature of the short-term market may change. Only then would I consider reducing long positions or even looking for opportunities in the opposite direction.
Therefore, I currently belong to the cautiously bullish camp.
Not because I believe BTC will definitely continue rising, but because the current trend has not given shorts sufficient reason to act.
Chasing a rally risks buying too high, while shorting risks a squeeze. The most comfortable approach is actually just one: wait for the market to pull back and take back control of your choices.
After all, investing is not a scramble for a train during the Spring Festival travel rush.
Missing this one doesn’t matter; another one will always come.
What is truly frightening is throwing away both your wallet and your seat belt just to squeeze onto the train.#BTCETH反弹交易思路