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Chasing BTC above $70k? I’d rather wait for it to “look back”: A trading plan is worth more than emotion
This BTC rally is indeed impressive, with the price quickly touching $70k and gaining more than 8% in 24 hours, reaching a new high since February this year. Meanwhile, ETH has gained more than 18%, and risk appetite across the crypto market has clearly heated up.
But for those only now preparing to enter, the biggest enemy is no longer the bears, but FOMO.
What is FOMO? Simply put, it is suddenly feeling that you have lost $70k if you do not buy after seeing other people’s accounts make money.
As a result, many people rush in around $70k, then immediately begin questioning their lives when the market pulls back just 3%.
If it were me, I would rather adopt the approach of “don’t chase the breakout; buy on the pullback.”
The first key area I would watch for BTC is $70k. It is both a psychological round-number level and the most important bull-bear dividing line in this rally. If the price can hold above $70k, then pull back without breaking below it before rising again on renewed volume, this level could have a chance to turn from resistance into support.
In this situation, I would focus on the pullback area around $68k–$70k, rather than frantically chasing higher prices around $71k or $72k.
In the second scenario, if BTC continues surging and directly breaks above $73k, I would instead reduce my urge to chase the rally. Because after consecutive gains, the risk-reward ratio deteriorates rapidly. The market will not give you a ticket just because you did not buy, but it may well teach you a lesson in “drawdown education” because you chased too aggressively.
For taking profits, I would do so in batches. If BTC breaks above $73k and continues rising on increased volume, I would consider gradually taking some profits; if it continues toward $75k or even higher, I would decide whether to retain the remaining position based on trend strength.
Stop-losses, however, must be executed mechanically. If the price falls below key support after a pullback and trading volume expands significantly, that would indicate the breakout may have failed. In that case, it is better to exit than to use “the bull market is coming back soon” as an excuse for holding losses.
As for opening a short position, I would not actively choose that for now.
The reason is simple: shorting against the trend during a strong rally is like standing in front of a train and discussing aerodynamics. In particular, this rally has clearly been driven in part by short liquidations, so further short squeezes in the short term are not impossible.
So my trading plan can be summed up in one sentence:
BTC waits for a pullback, ETH waits for confirmation; follow the trend when prices rise, maintain discipline when the breakout fails; do not guess the top, and do not get emotional with the market.
If $70k ultimately becomes new support, this rally may truly be entering a trend-repair phase.
And if the breakout fails, that is fine too.
The market offers opportunities every day. What is truly scarce is not the chance to buy, but having enough principal left in your account to keep waiting for the next opportunity.#BTCETH反弹交易思路