Don’t Get Carried Away by the Bullish Euphoria: Wait for BTC to Pull Back, ETH for Confirmation, and Shorts Shouldn’t Rush to “Take Revenge”

The biggest characteristic of this market move can be summed up in one word: fast.
BTC rapidly surged from its lows to around $70k, gaining more than 8% intraday; ETH was even more dramatic, briefly breaking above $2,300 with gains approaching 18%. Market sentiment instantly shifted from “Is the bear market not over yet?” to “Will the next stops be $80k and $3,000?”
But the stronger the market move, the less you should trade based on emotion.
That’s because two extremes are most likely to appear after a major rally: some people frantically chase the rise, while others immediately open short positions because they think the market has risen too much.
In my view, both approaches are relatively dangerous.
Let’s start with chasing the rally.
BTC is already close to $70k, while ETH has also experienced a rapid rise of around 18%. Continuing to chase with a fully invested position at this point means you are not buying “undervaluation,” but rather “trend continuation.” The trend may certainly continue, but if a sudden pullback occurs, the volatility cost you bear will be very high.
Now for shorting.
When many people see BTC rise 8% in a single day, their first reaction is, “How can it not fall after rising so much?” The problem is that the market does not stipulate that an 8% rise must be followed by an 8% decline. Moreover, this rally has been accompanied by large-scale short liquidations, and forced covering itself may continue to generate upward momentum.
So my choice is: don’t chase in the short term, and don’t rush to short either. Wait for the market to offer a better risk-reward ratio.
For BTC, I am mainly watching whether the area around $70k can complete a support-to-resistance flip. If it pulls back to the $68k–$70k range and then resumes rising on increased volume, I will consider entering in batches; if it breaks above $73k and continues to see increased volume, I may follow the trend with a small position.
For ETH, I am more focused on whether $2,300 can hold. If a pullback to around $2,250–$2,300 sees clear buying support, I may consider building a position in batches; if it breaks below key support and continues weakening, I will temporarily stay on the sidelines.
For taking profits, I will not set a rigid target of “selling only after it reaches a certain price.” Instead, I will take profits in batches. The stronger the market, the more gradually the position should be reduced, rather than increasing leverage as prices rise.
Stop-losses are even more important.
Any trading plan that only says “where to buy” but does not say “what to do if I’m wrong” cannot be called a plan; it can only be called wishful thinking.
Therefore, if key support is decisively broken, I will proactively reduce my position; only if a breakout fails and is accompanied by a high-volume decline will I consider a short-term reversal trade.
Overall, I remain cautiously bullish on BTC and ETH in the short term.
This market move has support from macro factors and capital flows, as well as the accelerating effect of short liquidations, and the strength certainly deserves respect. But whether the market has already upgraded from a rebound to a reversal still requires time to confirm.
My strategy can be summed up in three words: Don’t rush.
Wait for BTC to pull back, ETH for confirmation, and shorts for a signal.
After all, true experts do not need to capture every bullish candle. They know which bullish candles are worth chasing and which ones should be allowed to run on their own for a while.#BTCETH反弹交易思路