What BTC lacks now is not positive news, but incremental buying

BTC has recently appeared stable around $63k, but the market is actually very “cold”: trading volume has clearly contracted, and volatility has also fallen to multi-month lows. On the surface, it is not falling, but beneath that, it looks more like neither bulls nor bears are willing to take the initiative.
ETF data is even more direct. BTC spot ETFs saw consecutive inflows in early August, but have weakened again recently: from August 12 to 14, they recorded net outflows of $61.1 million, $131.1 million, and $56.2 million, respectively, bleeding for three consecutive days. Macroeconomic data has cooled somewhat, yet BTC has not reacted noticeably, suggesting that what the market truly lacks right now is not positive news, but capital willing to continue buying.
ETH has been relatively more resilient. In July, ETH spot ETF net inflows accounted for about 3.19% of fund assets, compared with just 0.34% for BTC, giving it nearly 9.4 times the relative strength; ETH also saw consecutive inflows in early August. But over the past few days, ETH-related flows have likewise begun to stagnate, suggesting this is more like a short-term rotation than the start of a major uptrend.
My view is simple: low volatility will not last forever. BTC will only have truly regained buying momentum if it stabilizes above $64k and breaks through on rising volume while ETFs resume consecutive net inflows; otherwise, the current situation looks more like calm before the storm. As for ETH, it is indeed stronger than BTC in the short term, but without BTC stabilizing the broader market, it will also be difficult for ETH to go far on capital rotation alone.
#BTC #ETF