What BTC is lacking now is not positive news, but incremental buying

BTC has recently appeared stable around $63k, but the market is actually “cold”: trading volume has clearly contracted, and volatility has also fallen to multi-month lows. On the surface, it is not declining, but beneath that, it looks more like neither bulls nor bears are willing to take the initiative.

ETF data is more direct. In early August, spot BTC ETFs saw consecutive net inflows, but they have weakened again recently: from August 12 to 14, they recorded net outflows of $61.1 million, $131.1 million, and $56.2 million, respectively, bleeding for three consecutive days. Macroeconomic data has cooled somewhat, yet BTC has shown no obvious reaction, indicating that what the market truly lacks right now is not positive news, but capital willing to keep buying.

ETH has been relatively more resilient. In July, ETH spot ETF net inflows accounted for approximately 3.19% of fund assets, compared with just 0.34% for BTC, giving it nearly 9.4 times the relative strength; ETH also saw consecutive inflows in early August. But over the past few days, ETH flows have likewise begun to stagnate, suggesting this is more likely a phase of rotation rather than the start of a major uptrend.

My view is simple: low volatility will not last forever. BTC can only be considered to have truly regained buying momentum if it reestablishes support above $64k and breaks through it on rising volume while ETFs return to consecutive net inflows; otherwise, the current situation looks more like the calm before the storm. As for ETH, it is indeed stronger than BTC in the short term, but without BTC stabilizing the broader market, it will also be difficult for ETH to go far on capital rotation alone.#我的七夕交易分享 @Gate 广场