#我的七夕交易分享 Gold Price Forecast for Next Week

Fundamental Analysis
1. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Lang stated on social media platform X: “The Strait of Hormuz belonged to Iran in the past, belongs to Iran now, and will continue to belong to Iran in the future; this strait can only be closed and opened on Iran’s orders.” He also said that the Strait of Hormuz “cannot be seized through a tweet, an aircraft carrier, an order, or a campaign speech.”
Trump previously claimed that after the United States defeated Iran, “I will soon announce that the Strait of Hormuz is U.S. territory.” Trump has always cited the saying “to the victor belong the spoils.” He had also previously proposed that the United States could impose transit fees on the strait after the conflict ended, but later abandoned the idea. U.S.-Iran negotiations have not resumed, and mutual trust remains fragile.
2. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said Saturday that it had received a verified report stating that a bulk carrier had been “struck by an unidentified projectile, which hit the vessel’s hull.” UKMTO is an organization supported by the British Navy that has long monitored maritime security risks in the region.
Since the temporary ceasefire collapsed in June, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been attacked multiple times by projectiles launched by Iran; in response, the United States has also attacked Iranian targets and participated in blockading Iranian ports. As maritime attacks and political confrontation escalate simultaneously, the market will remain highly alert to the security of passage through this key waterway and the stability of energy transportation.
3. The key factor determining whether gold prices can move clearly higher is a new catalyst, and economic data alone may not be enough. What could truly drive demand for gold may be a sudden escalation in geopolitics or some kind of “momentum event.” Economic data is currently neither particularly good nor particularly bad, inflation remains relatively sticky, and food prices are slightly elevated, but commodities overall are not unusually expensive. The market has not seen a strong enough driver to push gold prices to new highs.

Technical Analysis
1. Technically, gold may be forming a head-and-shoulders top pattern lasting several months. If gold prices are unable to break to a new high from the current level (4500), they could even fall again toward the 3950 area.
Although gold rose over the past two weeks, there is still no sign that a larger-scale uptrend is restarting. The dominant market narrative is currently energy, and energy prices are fluctuating within a range; the metals market is the same, so there remains a risk of a pullback next week.

2. There is considerable room for profit-taking this week. Gold may not continue surging in the short term, but market confidence in support below $4000 is strengthening; if gold prices can hold above $4300, short-term performance will be quite solid, while seasonal factors typically do not provide more obvious support for gold prices until November.
3. To resume a rise, gold needs to break through the key 4440-4450 level, after which it will test 4500. Gold has been unable to break above this level since the first week of June.
Although there was substantial profit-taking this week, buying returned before the weekend, indicating that the earlier profit-taking was only short-term.
4. If there is no new progress between the United States and Iran next week, gold will fluctuate, with buying on pullbacks as the main strategy; on the downside, 4327, 4315 (13), 4301, 4290, and 4261 are levels for entering long positions.
If negotiations between the United States and Iran go smoothly next week and news of another ceasefire emerges, chase the rise. If relations between the United States and Iran suddenly worsen next week, causing oil prices to rebound and rise again, chase the decline.

This analysis is for readers’ reference only!$XAUUSD ‌