The AI valuation race has moved from “telling stories” to “competing on revenue”

The competition between OpenAI and Anthropic is expanding from model capabilities all the way to the capital markets.

The latest news indicates that OpenAI’s annualized revenue could surpass $40 billion, nearly doubling from the end of 2025, with the main increases coming from AI coding tools, subscriptions, and commercial businesses. However, it is important to note that this is an annualized figure projected based on the current revenue run rate, and does not mean that the full-year revenue has already been realized.

Anthropic’s growth is even more aggressive. The chart mentions that its second-quarter revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, but the more reliable current reporting puts the figure at approximately $10.9 billion, up from $4.8 billion in the first quarter, while the company is also expected to record quarterly operating profit of approximately $559 million for the first time. The company completed a $65 billion funding round in May, reaching a post-money valuation of $965 billion.

The market has even begun discussing an IPO valuation of more than $2 trillion for Anthropic, but this is clearly pricing in growth expectations for the next several years ahead of time.

My view is that what truly determines the winner in the AI valuation race is not whose model ranks a few points higher, but who can turn massive spending on computing power into sustainable cash flow. Revenue growth is extremely rapid, but valuations are moving even faster. Once growth falls short of expectations, it will not affect only these two companies; the valuation logic for chips, data centers, cloud computing, and even the entire technology stock market will all be recalculated. #OpenAI年化营收超400亿美元 @Gate 广场