#10年期国债收益率再跌破1.7% 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Below 1.7% Again: Expectations Lead, but No Trend Has Been Established

#10年期国债收益率再跌破1.7% 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Below 1.7% Again: Expectations Lead, but No Trend Has Been Established

On August 12, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 1.694%, breaking below the key 1.7% level again. The move looked sharp but masked disagreement: the bond market is pricing in expectations more than a clear fundamental direction.

Three forces are driving rates lower. First, July’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2%, signaling weak recovery momentum and raising expectations for stronger growth-supporting policies. Second, liquidity was balanced and relatively loose, with overnight rates returning below 1.40%, boosting confidence in long positions. Third, institutions continued adding to positions, as insurers and other allocation-focused funds increased their demand for longer duration, supporting the ultra-long end.

However, the break did not lead to a one-way decline. The 1.70% level is a key psychological line for the central bank. After yields previously broke below it, the central bank promptly resumed minimal-volume operations, suggesting that the acceptable level will continue to limit further downside. Meanwhile, short-term rates rose instead of falling: 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields were higher than at the start of July, and the yield curve flattened.

The market has entered a wait-and-see standoff. Several analysts said the current rate decline is more a tentative move driven by expectations. Bosera Funds believes further declines require the actual implementation of reserve requirement cuts and interest rate cuts. Until additional policies and key economic data become clearer, the tug-of-war around 1.7% is likely to continue.