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#7月CPI符合预期通胀继续降温 This CPI data came in as expected, and coupled with the unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls data released earlier, market expectations for a September Fed rate hike have cooled significantly. If the July PCE data due at the end of this month also shows a slowdown, that would further eliminate the possibility of a September rate hike.
The election is drawing closer, so a September rate hike would be inappropriate. Waller, the Fed chief, has chaired two meetings, leaving the impression that he was incoherent, vague in his wording, and rather inconsistent in his stance. At one moment it was trimmed-mean inflation, then AI-driven inflation, and shortly afterward he said that rising US Treasury yields (real rates) had the effect of a rate hike, leaving us completely confused.
I think if this month's PCE data is okay and next month's data does not exceed expectations, then a September rate hike will basically be off the table for sure. If next month's data jumps again, expectations for a September rate hike may rise sharplyonce more.
Whether the Fed hikes in September may no longer be that sensitive a matter for the market.
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The election is drawing closer, so a September rate hike would be inappropriate. Waller, the Fed chief, has chaired two meetings, leaving the impression that he was incoherent, vague in his wording, and rather inconsistent in his stance. At one moment it was trimmed-mean inflation, then AI-driven inflation, and shortly afterward he said that rising US Treasury yields (real rates) had the effect of a rate hike, leaving us completely confused.
I think if this month's PCE data is okay and next month's data does not exceed expectations, then a September rate hike will basically be off the table for sure. If next month's data jumps again, expectations for a September rate hike may rise sharply once more.
Whether the Fed hikes in September may no longer be that sensitive a matter for the market.