$SPCX ‌/USDT: I’d Rather Buy the Retest Than Chase This

The part of this chart I’m watching most isn’t the +9.78% number.

It’s the breakout from the long 133–140 area and what price does after that breakout.

$SPCX is sitting at 147.55 on the 4H chart, just below the visible high at 149.26. Price pushed through the previous range with a strong green move, and instead of immediately dumping back into the range, it’s currently holding near the highs.

That’s usually the kind of price action I want to respect — but I also don’t want to blindly chase it.

The moving averages are giving the same message:

MA5: 146.65
MA10: 141.01
MA30: 137.67

Short-term structure is bullish, with price above all three averages and the MA5 sitting above the MA10 and MA30.

Volume is interesting too. The chart shows 310.58K volume, while the volume averages are 123.82K and 89.89K. So the breakout came with noticeably more activity than the recent average.

MACD is also positive:

MACD: 0.81
DIF: 4.21
DEA: 3.40

So momentum is still leaning bullish from what’s visible on the chart.

Now comes the important part: liquidity.

The obvious pool sitting above price is around 149.26, the recent high. If buyers can push through that level with volume and actually hold above it, the breakout could continue toward the next visible level around 153.64.

But if price spikes through 149.26 and quickly falls back underneath, I’d be careful. That could simply be a liquidity sweep rather than a clean continuation.

The setup I’m watching

Current price: 147.55

Resistance: 149.26
Next visible resistance/target: 153.64

Support: 146.65
Stronger support: 141.01
Major structure support: 137.67

Entry zone: 146.65–141.01 on a controlled pullback/retest

Targets: 149.26 → 153.64

Invalidation: 4H structure losing 137.67

I’m personally not interested in buying a big green candle right underneath resistance. If SPCX gives a clean breakout above 149.26 and holds it, that’s one way to approach it.

The other is more patient: let price come back toward 146.65–141.01, see whether buyers defend the area, and then look for continuation.

Why could the setup work?

Because the market has already shown a range breakout, volume expanded during the move, price is holding above the moving averages, and momentum is positive. If the old resistance area turns into support, that would give the bulls a much healthier structure to work with.

What could go wrong?

Simple — rejection at 149.26.

If buyers fail there and price starts losing 146.65, then 141.01 becomes important. A deeper break through 137.67 would seriously weaken the bullish breakout structure and would be my clear line for invalidation.

I’d rather miss part of the move than enter after an extended candle and then watch the breakout turn into a fakeout.

What do you think — does SPCX break 149.26 cleanly, or are we likely to see a retest first?

And if it does break 149.26, would you wait for a hold above it or take the breakout immediately?

Disclaimer: This is chart-based market analysis, not financial advice. Levels can fail quickly, especially in leveraged/perpetual markets. Manage risk and size positions according to your own plan.