#我的七夕交易分享 All the bullish news has been fully priced in—why isn't the market rising?

Today's biggest market controversy, and the core question puzzling all investors: macro tailwinds are maxed out, yet the crypto market is completely desensitized.
U.S. July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, continuing to decline from June's 3.5%, with the data fully in line with market expectations and confirming that inflation is cooling. Boosted by this positive news, the Nasdaq surged 0.54%, while AI chip and cloud computing stocks broke out across the board, driving risk assets across U.S. equities higher. But the crypto market remained "indifferent" throughout: BTC briefly spiked 0.3% after the data was released before quickly retreating, while ETH likewise struggled to extend its gains, thoroughly decoupling from U.S. stocks and entering a weak trend.
There is only one core truth: all the bullish news had already been priced in by the market.
Expectations of cooling inflation in this cycle had already been fully digested in the previous market moves, so the actual release brought no new buying. At the same time, the market is in a typical vacuum period in which negative news has been exhausted but positive news has yet to arrive: CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a September Fed rate hike fell sharply from 30% to 60%, with tightening risks greatly receding, but the market has yet to form clear expectations of rate cuts, leaving insufficient incremental logic to support a rebound.
More importantly, gold broke above $4,500 to hit a new two-month high, with safe-haven and capital-preservation funds being diverted significantly, further squeezing the upside for crypto risk assets and completely depriving the broader market of upward momentum.
BTC faces three fatal pressures
Beneath the seemingly dull sideways market, three hidden pressures continue to cap Bitcoin's rebound and are also the core obstacles preventing a short-term breakout:
1. Rising geopolitical tensions continue to cool risk appetite
Geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, with Iranian officials indicating that they may blockade the strait until 2029 in retaliation for a U.S. maritime blockade. The crisis in a core global energy corridor directly pushed WTI crude oil up to $83.75 per barrel, rapidly shrinking risk appetite across global markets. Compared with gold's stronger safe-haven properties, crypto assets' risk characteristics have become more pronounced, making them the first target of capital avoidance.
2. Regulatory implementation delayed, uncertainty continues to cause disruption
The vote on the U.S.'s core crypto legislation, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, has been postponed until September, leaving a short-term regulatory vacuum and the market without clear policy guidance. In addition, Hawaii will halt cash cryptocurrency purchase terminal services in October, presenting a trend of "structural tightening" in global regulation and continuously suppressing institutional confidence in entering the market.
3. Institutional selling has materialized, with selling pressure continuing
Leading institution Strategy continued to reduce its holdings and cash out. After selling 1,690 BTC last week, it raised another $653 million through a stock issuance, with its total BTC holdings now falling to 840447. Notably, the institution's average holding cost is as high as $75385, leaving it with deep unrealized losses overall. The potential for continued position reductions and stop-loss selling poses persistent pressure on the market.
Market Summary and Outlook
The crypto market on August 13 can be summed up by four core keywords: decoupling, shrinking volume, shakeout, and range-bound trading. Macro tailwinds materialized but failed to boost the market; the three pressures of geopolitical risk, regulatory uncertainty, and institutional selling weighed on BTC. ETH consolidated weakly under the influence of ETF outflows, a technical breakdown, and cautious capital, but its on-chain fundamentals continue to improve, and its medium- to long-term bottom remains solid.
In the short term, market liquidity has yet to return, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue. Before a key resistance level is broken, firmly avoid chasing long positions; before core support is breached, do not blindly turn bearish. The more grueling the sideways shakeout, the more worth anticipating the subsequent market shift. Focus on the breakout in trading volume and simply follow the trend. $BTC ‌