#USJulyCPIInLine

July U.S. CPI delivered almost exactly what markets were expecting.
Headline inflation came in at 3.4% YoY, while core CPI eased to 2.5% YoY. On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased just 0.1%, with core CPI rising 0.2%.

The immediate market reaction was constructive: stocks moved higher, Treasury yields eased, and risk sentiment improved as the report reduced pressure for an immediate Fed rate hike.

The bigger story is the September Fed decision.

Following the CPI release, CME FedWatch pricing showed the probability of a September 25-basis-point hike falling to around 42%, while the probability of leaving rates unchanged moved above 55%.

But this is not a clear victory over inflation yet.

Core inflation at 2.5% remains above the Fed’s 2% target, meaning policymakers still have reasons to remain cautious. The Fed will also receive additional inflation, employment and economic data before the September meeting, so today’s probabilities can change quickly.

My take: HOLD currently has the edge over HIKE.

The CPI report removes some pressure for immediate tightening, but one report is not enough to declare the inflation battle finished.

For BTC, stocks and other risk assets, a lower probability of a September hike can be supportive because it reduces near-term tightening fears. The next key question is whether upcoming economic data confirms this cooling trend.

👀 September: HIKE or HOLD?

Drop your call below.

@Gate_Square @GateSquare #StockTradingShareChallenge