$XTIUSD

$XBRUSD
$GAS

Oil and Natural Gas Undergo Slight Correction: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Concerns Persist

Oil prices are experiencing a slight correction after the sharp rise in the previous session. WTI fell 0.32% to $83.25, Brent fell 0.44% to $89.39, while natural gas traded at $3.09, down 0.72%. Geopolitical risks and supply concerns continue to support prices, while technical indicators present a balanced outlook in the short term.

Latest Situation in the Oil Market

WTI Oil (XTIUSD):

• Price: $83.25 (-0.32%)
• Intraday High: 84.49 - Low: 82.57
• MA5: 81.03 - MA10: 80.72 - MA30: 79.76

WTI is trading above all short-term moving averages. MACD (0.00) is in a horizontal zone, and the difference between DIF (0.20) and DEA (0.21) is almost zero. This indicates that the upward momentum is weakening and a sideways trend is possible in the short term.

Brent Oil (XBRUSD):

• Price: $89.39 (-0.44%)
• Intraday High: 90.76 - Low: 88.80
• MA5: 87.08 - MA10: 85.94 - MA30: 84.28

Brent is also above the moving averages. MACD (0.21) is in the positive zone and the difference between DIF (0.71) and DEA (0.49) is wide. This shows that the upward momentum is stronger in Brent compared to WTI.

Natural Gas Market

GAS:

• Price: $3.0926 (-0.72%)
• Intraday High: 3.1436 - Low: 3.0600
• MA5: 3.0327 - MA10: 2.9795 - MA30: 3.0709

Natural gas prices are trading just above the MA5 and MA30. MACD (-0.0005) is in negative territory, and the difference between DIF (-0.0109) and DEA (-0.0104) is narrowing. This indicates that the downward momentum is weakening and a sideways trend may be underway.

Factors and Risks Behind the Rise

Geopolitical Risks Continue:

• President Trump's statements about the "possibility of escalation" with Iran and his emphasis on control over the Strait of Hormuz keep supply concerns alive. • Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz (lifting asset freezes, ending the conflict in Lebanon) have not yet been met.

Supply Tightness:

• Continuation of production cuts by OPEC+ countries. • Supply disruptions in some countries and geopolitical risks.

Dollar Weakness:

• Recent weakness in the dollar index is supporting dollar-denominated commodities.

Risks:

• Wednesday's inflation data could change Fed expectations, causing sharp movements in the dollar. • News of reduced geopolitical risks or increased supply could trigger a price correction.

Oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks and supply concerns, while technical indicators show a flat outlook for WTI and a weakly positive outlook for Brent. The downward momentum in natural gas appears to be weakening.

Critical Levels:

· WTI Resistance: 84.50 (intraday high) - 85.00 (psychological)
· WTI Support: 82.57 (intraday low) - 81.00 (MA5)
· Brent Resistance: 90.76 (intraday high) - 91.00 (psychological)
· Brent Support: 88.80 (intraday low) - 87.00 (MA5)
· GAS Resistance: 3.15 - 3.20
· GAS Support: 3.06 (intraday low) - 3.00 (psychological)

Geopolitical developments and inflation data in the coming days will be decisive in determining the direction of energy prices.

This post is not investment advice; it is for informational purposes only regarding market conditions.

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