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Morgan Stanley outlined 3 scenarios for the end of the “AI model war,” specifying the main beneficiaries of each outcome 🤯



The key question
The AI market is currently witnessing a confrontation between powerful closed models offered through paid subscriptions by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, and free/low-cost open-source models from Alibaba, Tencent, and DeepSeek. The issue at stake is who will win mass-market consumers and capture the majority of revenue.

Scenarios
1. Victory for closed models: open-source models fail to catch up with closed models in quality and lose the battle for customers

Beneficiaries:
🔵 Developers of closed models (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google)
🔵 Cloud giants (Amazon, Google)
🔵 Cybersecurity (Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike)

2. Draw (base-case scenario): open-source models handle basic tasks well, while closed models lead in complex specialized tasks

Beneficiaries:
🔵 Cloud giants (Amazon, Google, Microsoft)
🔵 Infrastructure software (Palantir, Appian, Datadog)
🔵 Cybersecurity (Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike)

3. Victory for open-source models: the world shifts to mass adoption of open-source models, with companies running AI locally or on users’ devices

Beneficiaries:
🔵 Developers of open-source models (Alibaba, Tencent, DeepSeek)
🔵 Cloud giants (Microsoft)
🔵 Device manufacturers (Apple, Dell, HPE)
🔵 Application software (Shopify, SAP, ServiceNow)

💬 Regardless of the outcome of the AI war, chip manufacturers (Nvidia), the energy sector (BE, WMB, LBRT), and cybersecurity will benefit.
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GateUser-ed9e1012
2026-08-10
Hold on tight 💪
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mozo35
2026-08-09
First Review
Personally, I’m in favor of free signatures—let large companies cover these small expenses 😇
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