#Bitcoin Active Supply in Profit Falls Below 45%

Bitcoin’s active supply in profit has fallen below 45%. Is a reversal due?❓
1️⃣ What it means
Excluding coins that haven’t moved in over 10 years, less than 45% of the active supply is in profit. Losses now exceed profits, indicating that most recent buyers are underwater.
2️⃣ Historical significance
When this indicator falls below 40%, it has historically often coincided with lows during a correction. Near 100%, the risk of a reversal increases. The market is currently in a “weak hands shakeout” phase.
3️⃣ My take
This is a neutral-to-positive on-chain signal: selling pressure is being released and the cost basis is moving lower, corroborated by extreme fear and continued ETF outflows. But it’s more of an early warning of a potential short-term low than a signal of an immediate reversal. A genuine rebound still depends on whether ETF flows stabilize and macro conditions turn favorable.
The contrarian window is opening. Manage your position size and build gradually in tranches.
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