Your Hao-ge, July 29 midday: ETH market technical analysis

ETH is ranging around 1900. After briefly dipping to 1856–1872 with a quick needle move in the early hours yesterday, it rebounded rapidly. The current quote is about 1906–1926 USDT, with a 24h drop of roughly 1%. The market is in a defensive posture ahead of the FOMC decision (7/30 02:00 Beijing time). The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 25–28 (extreme fear). Overnight, the total liquidation across the whole network was $686 million, of which longs accounted for 79%.

Current technical structure: box-range consolidation around 1900

Moving average system (based on ETH spot daily)

Price is holding above the 50-day MA (about 1830–1892), and short-term MA support is temporarily effective

But the 200-day MA (about 2153) forms a clear medium- and long-term overhead pressure

Overall, it shows a structure of “bullish short term, pressured medium term,” and the strength of bulls’ defense is weakening

MACD & momentum

Daily MACD’s green histogram below zero is shortening, but it has not golden-crossed yet. On the 4H timeframe, it is within a falling channel with an oversold rebound

On the 12-hour timeframe, KDJ and MACD are wavering around the middle. BOLL is consolidating with a slight upward bias, indicating that bid support at the lows remains strong

Key point: Daily MA30 (real-time around 1850–1820) is the trend lifeline—if it is not broken, the market can continue pushing upward; if there is an effective breakdown, the daily trend will shift

Volume & price confirmation

Yesterday’s daily trading value was $12.5 billion, showing clear expansion versus the 30-day average, but it is a “sell-off with heavy volume” pattern, suggesting concentrated selling pressure and evident distribution by capital

Trading logic:

⚠️ Before the FOMC, hold a light position. Per-trade size ≤ 3% of total funds, with strict stop-loss. The following is for technical analysis reference only, not investment advice.

Buy on pullback (conservative first choice): When it stabilizes at 1844-1855 (especially if 1850 does not break), go long with a light position. Stop-loss: below 1838. Targets: 1910 → 1950; if it rises above 1912 on expanded volume, then 1975 can be considered

Sell/short on rebound at higher levels: When it stalls at 1950–1975 (needle/rejection/engulfing pattern), short again. Stop-loss: above 2005. Targets: 1910 → 1870

Breakdown follow-through: If it breaks below 1840 and the rebound fails to return, follow the sell; look for 1758. If it stands above 1975 on expanded volume, then pulls back without breaking—go long, looking for 2030 → 2195

ETH is currently undergoing box-range adjustment around 1900. As long as the daily MA30 (about 1820–1850) is not effectively broken, the rebound structure remains intact. After the FOMC lands, it has the potential to launch an attack toward 2000. Conversely, if 1840 is lost, it would mean the rebound since the end of June has ended, and there are risks to watch for further downside to 1700 and even 1580. Before the decision, it is recommended to control position size and add risk only after the direction becomes clear. #ETH