I. Current market conditions

As of July 29, Ethereum is in a technical rebound repair phase after a sharp drop, with the overall market still biased toward a choppy, range-bound pattern.

Latest price: approximately $1,910–$1,924

Key levels:

Direction | Level | Explanation
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Resistance overhead | $1,920–$1,940 | Daily Bollinger middle band + EMA dual suppression
Stronger resistance | $1,950–$1,960 | Prior rebound high
Support below | $1,850–$1,880 | 4-hour Fibonacci 38.2% support
Core support | $1,800–$1,830 | The next line of defense if it breaks below $1,850

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II. Long/short logic and strategies

🟢 Long-side logic

· Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflows of $104 million last week, about 3 times that of the Bitcoin ETF
· BitMine Immersion, the largest corporate ETH holder, added more than 100k ETH in the past 30 days
· The US-Iran ceasefire entering its third day leads to a rapid fade in geopolitical risk premium

Long strategy: if it pulls back to $1,858–$1,865 and stabilizes, you can cautiously try longs with a small position; stop-loss at $1,842; targets at $1,900–$1,925; aggressive traders can watch the $1,907–$1,911 area for potential bargain entries

🔴 Short-side logic

· After pushing up to $1,983 on the 1-hour chart, it then printed consecutive bearish candles; the 4-hour MACD forms a death cross
· The broader market BTC breaks below $64,000, and ETH follows down without catching up to gains
· This rebound is mainly driven by short-term leveraged capital; spot buying demand is insufficient
· The rebound high is burdened by heavy trapped positions, with limited incremental capital

Short strategy: short with pressure on the rebound at $1,928–$1,935; stop-loss at $1,960; targets at $1,885–$1,860; if it pulls back to $1,930–$1,970 and fails to break, it may still be considered

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III. ⚠️ Biggest risk: FOMC interest rate decision

The Fed’s rate decision on July 28–29 is the biggest variable right now:

· July rate-hike probability: 36.3%; September rate-hike probability: 55.7%
· The market is pricing the FOMC outcome at close to a 50-50 split, the most disagreement since September 2024

Before the decision is released, it’s recommended to stay sidelined and wait for clarity in the $1,860–$1,920 range; avoid making a heavy directional bet.

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IV. Summary

Currently, Ethereum is in a $1,850–$1,950 large-range consolidation, and the choice of direction depends on the FOMC decision outcome. A break above and sustained hold of $1,920–$1,940 could open the path to $1,983–$2,000; an effective breakdown of $1,850–$1,860 would then target $1,820–$1,800. #以太坊