Countdown! $BTC An unusual “cost crossover” signal has appeared on-chain, and history has repeatedly pointed to the eve of a major surge—yet do retail investors still have just the last two steps to escape?

Nine consecutive months of price decline—$BTC ’s on-chain data has already laid bare the “bottom line” cards: the market is in the late stage of a bear market.

Don’t listen to the empty talk of “the bull run is back and will return fast.” Data doesn’t lie. Three core features appear in sync: the cost basis of long-term holders and short-term holders is crossing, circulating supply has shrunk to an unprecedented extent, and speculative capital has kept cutting losses and exiting. This analysis only discusses data and not emotions.

The first signal: handover of market narrative power. The most direct on-chain panel indicator—long-term holders’ and short-term holders’ cost basis converging. In mid-July 2026, $BTC showed the classic “bear market bottom” marker: the realized holding price of short-term holders continued to fall relative to that of long-term holders. Behind this is retail investors collectively cutting losses—not ordinary volatility. From the peak of this cycle, short-term holders’ average cost basis crashed from about $112,500 to $69,000.

Long-term holders are mostly mature investors who control more market information, and their costs have stayed firm. Recently, large-scale inflows have been sold off, directly pushing down short-term costs. Historical patterns suggest that when these cost bases cross, it often signals the bear market’s final phase is beginning. Retail investors with weak risk tolerance are being flushed out, while seasoned players with chips in hand start dominating the market. If the crossover condition can be sustained for the long term (holding steady in the crossover range for three consecutive days is an important confirmation), the bottoming process officially kicks off.

The second signal: supply contraction to an extreme level. The cost basis crossover between long and short positions is essentially a shift in “chip voice.” The underlying supply structure can corroborate it. Alphractal data shows that $BTC long-term holders’ share hit an all-time high—84%. Since 2016, the first time for short-term traders’ usable circulating liquidity to be reduced to only 16% of the total.

The total long-term holding amount is 5.2 times the short-term circulating chips, indicating that mature investors keep adding positions as the market weakens, full of confidence. The scarcity of circulating chips creates a special pattern: current market liquidity is at a historical low. As long as demand rises sharply, prices will likely swing violently. Another quant firm CryptoQuant’s data also confirms this: in May this year, the net increase in long-term holders’ positions reached a six-year peak, with a cumulative net accumulation of 1.29 million $BTC.

There’s another clear feature in the chip structure: besides chips with holding periods of 6 to 12 months that are being converted in large batches into long-term holdings, circulating chips across every other holding period are continuously decreasing—speculative capital is撤离.

The third signal: the countdown to panic selling. By combining the scale of loss-making chips and the Realized Cap Value (RCV) model, it can be confirmed that the market is in the late stage of the bear market. K33 Research provided key data: on June 5, the percentage of $BTC circulating chips in a loss state broke above the 50% critical line; it has now fallen back to 46%. Looking back at history, once the ratio of loss-making chips spikes and then falls back below 50%, the subsequent bottoming cycle generally lasts between 13 days and 101 days—now it is already in the countdown to the bottom.

This cycle’s grinding-bottom period ranks second in history. All signs suggest the worst phase of the trend has likely already ended, rather than the decline just beginning. CryptoQuant’s calculated Realized Cap Value variance Z-score is -2.35, at an extreme low in the bottom 6% historically. This means the market is currently barely in profit overall. Revisiting history, this kind of range often serves as a precursor stage to later large gains.

Right now, various indicators gradually move into resonance. Prices have already fully digested valuation pressure and macro negative catalysts. But the market still hasn’t shown a clear entry buy point.

Risk reminder: a market reversal still requires multiple conditions. Despite fundamental data favoring the long-term side, various momentum technical indicators are still issuing alarms. Short-term position momentum indicators are overall bearish; however, the lows are being raised continuously. The current long-side sentiment index is only 20—far from the 60 threshold needed for sustained rising support.

Two key dynamic resistance levels—the true market average price and the short-term holders’ average cost basis—both have failed to break through successfully. Glassnode proposes that to confirm a complete reversal of bull/bear trends, two prerequisites must be met: further easing of pressure from retail panic selling, and institutional capital flows stabilizing toward positive.

Multiple model estimates suggest that if $BTC miners continue to sell and cash out, the coin price could dip to $47,000; if it cannot break upward above the short-term high holding cost basis, the market would likely pull back toward around $58,000 to find support.

Overall, the market’s low point is close at hand, but the bottom has not been fully explored yet. All data indicates that the market is in the final structured stage of a slow repair from the lows. Although the complete reversal logic is not yet fully constructed, the groundwork for bottoming is being laid step by step.

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