Bitcoin dips below 64k, Ethereum loses 1,900, over 100k liquidations—tonight’s rate-hike “black swan” hangs overhead!

Tonight, global capital markets are holding their breath—the U.S. Federal Reserve’s July rate decision is about to be released. The market’s probability of a rate hike has surged from around 10% two weeks ago to more than 30%, the biggest disagreement in two years. Bitcoin promptly fell below 64,000, Ethereum slipped below the 1,900 threshold, and more than 100k liquidations triggered and forced traders out on the eve of the FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the eagerly awaited CLARITY Act has been postponed for review in the Senate, delaying regulatory tailwinds again. Geopolitical tensions flare up once more, and oil prices bounce back above $100—three major pressures simultaneously weigh on the crypto market, with both bulls and bears waiting breathlessly for the ultimate verdict at 2:00 a.m. tonight.
As of July 29, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in the $63,979–$64,000 range, down about 1.4%–1.87% over the past 24 hours; Ethereum (ETH) is in the $1,924–$1,940 range, down about 1.2%–1.5% over the past 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index remains in the “Fear” zone, and market confidence is extremely fragile.

I. Market Snapshot: The eve of the meeting, both coins under pressure
On July 29, the crypto market continued to trade weak ahead of the release of the Fed’s rate decision. Bitcoin briefly surged to $65,069 intraday, then sharply dumped to test the low at $62,660, triggering a cascade of liquidations and kicking off a weak recovery. As of the time of writing, BTC is consolidating in the $63,979–$64,000 range, down about 1.4%–1.87% over 24 hours. From a more macro perspective, Bitcoin just posted its fourth consecutive “green week” last week, with a close of $65,400, and this week’s decline is eroding that hard-won rebound. Bitcoin’s market cap is about $1.28 trillion, and its cumulative drawdown year-to-date is still over 25%. Ethereum is weakening in tandem. ETH is currently around $1,924, down about 1.21% over the past 24 hours. ETH recently touched a 55-day high of $1,980, but amid risk-off sentiment ahead of the FOMC, it retreated back toward the $1,900 level. The ETH/BTC ratio edged lower, temporarily stalling fund rotation. Altcoins are falling in step. Solana is down 1.84%, Dogecoin down 1.17%, and XRP down 2.45%. Crypto total market capitalization has evaporated by about $24 billion, as the market pulls back across the board ahead of key events. Liquidation data shows that over the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the whole network has surged significantly, with longs becoming the main victims of this leg of the selloff. With high uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s rate meeting, leveraged positions are being involuntarily cleared. In terms of sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index remains in the “Fear” zone. South Korea’s “anti-Kimchi premium” widens further: the Korea Up Premium Index drops into negative territory, indicating Asian investors are more pessimistic than the global market.

II. 2:00 a.m. tonight: The most unpredictable FOMC in recent years
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve will release its July rate decision. This is being called by multiple institutions “the hardest one to predict in recent years.” The probability of a rate hike has jumped from 13% to 38%. CME FedWatch shows that the market pricing for a 25-basis-point hike by the Fed in July has leapt from 13% a week ago to 38%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 66.3%. A rate-hike probability above 30% is extremely rare in FOMC meetings in recent years. Behind the sudden rise in rate-hike expectations is a geopolitical shock to oil prices. Since July, the conflict between Iran and the U.S. has kept escalating, and oil prices once broke above $100 per barrel, stoking inflation expectations. More and more major Wall Street firms believe there is real risk that the Fed may hike rates this week.
Two scenarios, two completely different paths
Scenario 1: Hold steady but hawkish tilt (the baseline expectation). Most institutions expect the Fed to keep the target rate range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the meeting statement and the press conference overall could lean hawkish. Powell has already explicitly committed to steering the FOMC toward “price stability.” If he reiterates “zero tolerance” for inflation, expectations for a September hike will further heat up.
Scenario 2: Unexpected hike (black swan). If the Fed chooses to hike by 25 basis points, it would deliver a sharp shock to global risk assets. Bitcoin could quickly fall below the $60,000 level, and the crypto market would face another round of large-scale liquidation. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but JPMorgan strategists note that inflation remains above the central bank’s long-term target, and the Fed may keep rates unchanged throughout the year. No matter the outcome, every word at 2:00 a.m. tonight could become a “trigger” for the market’s direction.

III. More trouble: The CLARITY Act is delayed in the Senate
Regulatory developments also bring bad news. According to Foresight News, the U.S. Senate has postponed consideration of the “CLARITY Act,” redirecting agenda resources to other priorities, including advancing the nomination process and a Russia sanctions bill. This means that until other matters are resolved, the Senate is unlikely to move the bill forward. Senate Majority Leader Thune said legislative work could continue after the August recess. Once it enters the August 7 summer recess, the bill will face political variables as the midterm election approaches. Galaxy Research notes that if the bill cannot be passed before the recess, the legislative timeline may be pushed back to 2027. The market originally expected the CLARITY Act to achieve a breakthrough before the August recess, but that expectation is now fading. Ongoing regulatory uncertainty is suppressing institutional appetite to enter the market.

IV. Geopolitical storm: Oil breaks $100, inflation clouds linger
On the macro front, the Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to weigh on the region. The Iran–U.S. conflict has escalated again, and passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been hindered. The Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, making it difficult for Saudi Arabia to export crude oil, further spreading tension across the Middle East. Iran warns that vessels belonging to any country or company that supports President Trump using Iran’s frozen assets will be banned from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Although Trump said on the 27th that the U.S. has observed a three-day ceasefire and engaged in “friendly negotiations,” the geopolitical risk premium has not fully disappeared.
Goldman Sachs analysts point out that if the Strait of Hormuz fully resumes normal passage in the fourth quarter this year, Brent crude could fall back to $80 per barrel by year-end—but disruption to Red Sea shipping and attacks on Saudi oil facilities could still add new upward risks to oil prices.

V. Technicals: Key support faces the ultimate test
Bitcoin: $63,000 marks the line between bulls and bears. After dipping to $62,660 intraday, BTC started rebounding; it is currently consolidating around $63,979.
Key supports: $63,000–$63,100: the key support zone repeatedly tested recently; $62,660: the intraday low—if it breaks, it will open deeper downside; $62,000: the next line of defense and key resistance if $62,660 fails
Key resistance: $64,800–$65,000: the primary target for the rebound; $65,069: the intraday high
A Gate analyst said BTC is currently consolidating near the middle band, with the RSI three lines sticking around the mid-40s. RSI6 is below RSI12, forming a hidden bearish cross, and short-term momentum has weakened. Overhead resistance is suppressing price significantly, and the intraday pattern shows a sharp drop followed by a rebound/repair.
Ethereum: The $1,900 level is in jeopardy. ETH is currently around $1,924 and briefly fell to the $1,862 low early this morning, consolidating there.
Key supports: $1,862–$1,900: the area being tested right now; $1,830–$1,800: the next line of defense and key resistance; $1,950–$1,980: the recent high zone; $2,000: the psychological level. The total value locked in Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem has fallen to about $5 billion, the lowest level since 2023, and fundamental support is weakening.

VI. Trading advice: Wait for the shoe to drop—watch more, move less
For short-term traders, the FOMC decision at 2:00 a.m. tonight is the biggest source of uncertainty right now. It is recommended to stay sidelined before the decision is released to avoid heavy-position gambling.
BTC strategy: If after the decision the price stabilizes around $63,000 and Powell releases a dovish signal, you could cautiously participate in a rebound with a small position. If there is an unexpected hike, be alert to accelerating downside risk.
ETH strategy: Watch whether the $1,900 level holds or breaks. Before the decision, watch more and trade less, then wait for clearer direction.
Medium- to long-term investors
Tonight’s FOMC decision will set the tone for macro policy in the second half of the year. If the Fed holds steady and releases a neutral signal, it could give the crypto market a breathing space for a period. If there is an unexpected hike or a strong hawkish signal, the market may face another round of pressure. It is recommended to wait until the decision outcome and Powell’s press conference remarks are clear before reassessing mid-term allocation opportunities.
Risk warnings: FOMC “black swan” rate hike—hike probability is still above 30%; an unexpected hike will trigger sharp volatility
CLARITY Act delay—the Senate has postponed review, so regulatory tailwinds are unlikely to materialize in the near term
Geopolitical conflict keeps flaring—after oil breaks $100, inflation expectations continue to heat up; technicals lean weak: BTC’s short-term momentum has weakened, and the $63,000 support faces a test