BTC/ETH Market Analysis for 7.29

After a pullback from the prior high and a dip to test the low, a new round of rebound and recovery began. On the 1-hour timeframe, price formed a bottoming-and-rebounding structure, and short-term moving averages are turning upward. During the rebound, volume is releasing in a moderate manner, but after pushing higher, bullish momentum gradually weakens. The market is currently in a high-level range-bound consolidation stage. There is strong resistance above at the prior down-move starting point. Overall, this is a rebound/repair行情 after a major drop; the medium-term weak pattern has not been fully reversed yet.

ETH 1-hour走势
From the low of 1855.36, ETH rebounded, with the high reaching 1954.62. After hitting higher, it faced selling pressure and pulled back; the current price is consolidating around 1904.51. Key resistance overhead: 1932 and 1955. Key support below: 1878 and 1855. As long as price has not been able to hold above the 1955 level effectively, it is defined as rebound/repair; only if price keeps holding that resistance can it open further upside room.

Shorts: enter 1928-1935, stop loss 1960, take profit 1885, 1860
Longs: enter 1858-1865, stop loss 1842, take profit 1900, 1925

BTC 1-hour走势
BTC is highly correlated with ETH. After bottoming at 62700.1 and rebounding, it peaked at 65693.5 but then pulled back under pressure. The current price is consolidating around 63703.9. Key resistance overhead: 64500 and 65000. Key support below: 63300 and 62700. The rebound/repair rhythm is more choppy; overhead resistance is layered and dense. If there is no continued inflow of incremental funds, the rebound upside has an upper limit.

Shorts: enter 64400-64550, stop loss 65100, take profit 63500, 62900
Longs: enter 62750-62850, stop loss 62400, take profit 63600, 64200

How global macro news impacts BTC and ETH

The market continues to wait for the release of U.S. inflation-related data, and expectations for the interest-rate path are repeatedly fluctuating. Currently, overall risk sentiment is neutral to cautious, with capital staying on the sidelines. As crypto is a risk asset, it lacks a clear macro positive catalyst; the rebound relies more on short-term oversold fund buybacks. If inflation data remains high afterward, it will continue to suppress market upside expectations and limit the rebound height of BTC and ETH.

On-chain data to watch

During this low-level rebound phase, the net inflow of exchange chips slows down, and short-term profit-taking funds are gradually being realized. The short-term SOPR indicator is rebounding; short-term accounts that entered to bottom-fish are currently in profit and have a need to take profits and exit. Long-term holders’ positions are broadly stable, and there has been no large-scale selloff. The strength of “whales” actively accumulating is only average. This rebound is mainly driven by short-term leveraged funds; spot demand has not been strong enough to sustain continuous buying.

Summary: This rebound is a repair move driven by oversold recovery, not a sustained inflow driven by long-term capital. The pressure to realize profits at higher levels is relatively heavy. We need to continue monitoring whether net outflows from exchanges can persist, to judge the likelihood of a trend reversal.

Brief logic for long and short positions

Bears: The prior downtrend has not been fully reversed. This round is a technical rebound. When price reaches the upper key resistance zone, short-term take-profit sell pressure is likely to be released in a concentrated way.
Bulls: Rely on the prior low for a tug-of-war to support oversold repair. You must hold the key support below; if that support is lost, the rebound structure will be damaged.

Key focus for what to watch next: whether trading volume can keep expanding during the push higher; whether the key overhead resistance can break through effectively; continue tracking exchange fund flows to confirm the strength of spot capital inflows.

‼️ The above content is only reference for technical charts, macro environment, on-chain data, and market sentiment analysis, and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto asset trading is highly volatile with extremely high risk—please treat the market rationally, and strictly manage your position size.