Good morning, everyone.

The main focus in the current market is centered on the progress of the US-Iran negotiations and the Fed’s upcoming rate decision.

Trump said that both sides of the US-Iran talks are in “good negotiations.” The related news pushed international oil prices down in the short term, temporarily easing geopolitical risk, and also relieving the crypto market’s safe-haven pressure.

As for the Federal Reserve, the market currently expects there is a 69.5% probability that this meeting will keep interest rates unchanged, and a 30.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. In addition, TD Securities believes that if the Fed chooses to stand pat, the US dollar may weaken in the short term.

Therefore, tonight the market needs to focus on the US rate decision to be released at 2:00 a.m., and then the remarks by Fed Chair Walsh. Compared with the rate outcome itself, the policy signals conveyed in Walsh’s speech may be even more important, including whether there is still a possibility of further hikes, the assessment of inflation, and the direction of future monetary policy.

Personally, I think the Fed will most likely keep rates unchanged this time. If there is an unexpected hike, risk assets may face further pressure and pull back.

Before the results are released, it’s recommended to stay on the sidelines first, and only decide on the direction of subsequent trades after the policy signals become clear, to avoid blindly chasing or selling hard before the news hits.

From the current intraday tape, the overall market has relatively limited room for volatility, indicating that market funds are still waiting for the news to land. It’s expected that during the day today, the行情 will most likely continue to trade within a range, so it’s advised to stick to intraday short-term strategies.

Looking at the daily structure, BTC has recently remained in overall consolidation. In the short term, support near $62,000 is still worth watching. ETH’s recent daily performance has been relatively stronger than the broader market; in the short term, watch around $1,850. SOL’s daily trend is still in a consolidation-to-down channel overall, and its performance is on the weaker side; in the short term, continue to watch support near $70.5.

After tonight’s news is released, market volatility may expand significantly. Everyone, be sure to manage your position size and risk.
$BTC ‌$ETH ‌$SOL ‌