7.28 Morning BTC/ETH Plunge Analysis

I. Macro Market Sentiment (Main Triggers)
1、An important overseas policy meeting is approaching, and market wait-and-see sentiment has risen. Many funds choose to reduce their position size. The market worries that the policy tone will be cautious, easing expectations have cooled, and risk-type assets have collectively come under pressure for adjustment.
2、Overnight, overseas technology sector performance weakened, and related track assets generally fell back. Major digital assets have a strong correlation with overseas growth names; with external sentiment turning down, sell-offs within the market increased.
3、Tensions in the geopolitical situation eased, safe-haven demand declined, and in the short term there is a lack of capital to provide support, putting the market under pressure.

II. Changes in Capital Flows
The pace of incremental capital that had been steadily flowing in earlier slowed down, and the willingness to enter the market proactively decreased.
After this round rebounded from the lows and moved upward, it accumulated a large amount of short-term profit-taking chips. Many funds chose to take profits on the rise, creating concentrated兑现 pressure.

III. Technical Structure and How Market Sentiment Amplified the Adjustment
1、Repeated attempts to break through the key overhead range failed to hold. Multiple tests resulted in downward pullback under pressure. On the four-hour level, a pressure-forming pattern formed; long momentum continued to be consumed, and there was a built-in need for adjustment. Both major mainstream assets showed weak signals in which their highs gradually shifted lower at the same time.
2、After key support levels were lost, panic sentiment spread and concentrated selling behavior amplified the adjustment magnitude, accelerating the decline.
3、This round of上涨 lacked sustained incremental capital support and mainly relied on short-term sentiment. After buying pressure weakened, there was insufficient follow-through, and the short-side rhythm gained the upper hand. $BTC $ETH