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Bitcoin spot trading volume hits a new low since the end of the 2023 bear market, plunging more than 75% from the peak at the end of 2024.
On-chain data is worth paying attention: BTC spot trading volume has been shrinking continuously, falling back to levels seen at the end of the 2023 bear market. Compared with last year’s high point, it has contracted by more than 75%, and the market has entered a dull phase with low turnover.
First, clarify the two layers of reality behind the volume shrinkage:
1. A large amount of coins is shifting into long-term lockups. After institutions accumulate for the long term, they no longer trade frequently. Retail participation cools down, floating supply of tradable coins becomes smaller, and naturally there is insufficient sustained turnover.
2. There is currently a lack of sustained main-line catalysts. Without a steady stream of new capital coming in, most rebounds rely on short-term news-driven stimulation, making it difficult to break out of a continuous trend market.
Dialectically view the low-volume signal:
Historical patterns: At the end of bear markets, trading volume often remains depressed for a long time, and selling pressure gradually dries up. But low volume does not necessarily mean an immediate bottom and reversal; bottoming processes are often extremely drawn out.
Short-term risk: After liquidity shrinks, price action is more prone to spikes and violent volatility. With only a small amount of capital, rapid rises and falls become possible, and the profit-to-loss ratio for follow-the-trade orders declines significantly.
Personal take on the chart:
During a low-volume consolidation phase, don’t bet heavily on a one-way direction. The market will most likely keep whipsawing within a range. Wait for trading volume to expand again before you can confirm the start of a new uptrend or downtrend.
Key things to watch next: whether spot capital is returning, and whether ETF capital flows can shift from outflows to continuous inflows.
On-chain data is worth paying attention: BTC spot trading volume has been shrinking continuously, falling back to levels seen at the end of the 2023 bear market. Compared with last year’s high point, it has contracted by more than 75%, and the market has entered a dull phase with low turnover.
First, clarify the two layers of reality behind the volume shrinkage:
1. A large amount of coins is shifting into long-term lockups. After institutions accumulate for the long term, they no longer trade frequently. Retail participation cools down, floating supply of tradable coins becomes smaller, and naturally there is insufficient sustained turnover.
2. There is currently a lack of sustained main-line catalysts. Without a steady stream of new capital coming in, most rebounds rely on short-term news-driven stimulation, making it difficult to break out of a continuous trend market.
Dialectically view the low-volume signal:
Historical patterns: At the end of bear markets, trading volume often remains depressed for a long time, and selling pressure gradually dries up. But low volume does not necessarily mean an immediate bottom and reversal; bottoming processes are often extremely drawn out.
Short-term risk: After liquidity shrinks, price action is more prone to spikes and violent volatility. With only a small amount of capital, rapid rises and falls become possible, and the profit-to-loss ratio for follow-the-trade orders declines significantly.
Personal take on the chart:
During a low-volume consolidation phase, don’t bet heavily on a one-way direction. The market will most likely keep whipsawing within a range. Wait for trading volume to expand again before you can confirm the start of a new uptrend or downtrend.
Key things to watch next: whether spot capital is returning, and whether ETF capital flows can shift from outflows to continuous inflows.