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Is the long/short tug-of-war nearing the end? Gold prices may return to the 4,080 centerline
In today’s Asian session, gold opened with a large bearish candle and directly fell below yesterday’s New York low, which seems to set the tone for today’s downtrend. Throughout the entire Asian session, gold remained in a downward trend.
During the London session, gold rebounded at one point and broke above the range high from the late Asian session’s consolidation, conducting a liquidity capture. After that, it turned downward again and made a fresh intraday low.
Ahead of the New York session, gold rebounded somewhat, but after encountering resistance at the Asian session low, it turned lower again and once more set a fresh intraday low.
Judging from the fact that all three sessions today consecutively made fresh intraday lows, the bias toward a downside move is fairly clear. But it’s also worth noting that the cost-effectiveness of shorting today may not be as high anymore.
Looking back at the past few days, gold has been consolidating in the 3,900-4,200 range. I’ve mentioned multiple times that every time it moves above 4,100, the primary approach is to short; when it comes below 4,000, the primary approach is to go long. This was verified again yesterday.
With the Federal Reserve rate decision coming this Thursday, will this range be broken? I think the odds are relatively high. But before this Thursday, the market likely won’t lean heavily toward either extreme level; a more likely scenario is returning to a more balanced state—such as the midpoint of this 4,080 range.
Of course, it’s also not impossible that tonight gold revisits below 4,000 for another liquidity sweep. However, this kind of move is more likely to happen tomorrow night, leading up to just before the interest-rate decision is released. From a practical standpoint, if tomorrow’s Asian session gold can come near the 4,000 level and a bullish mindset appears there, you can try going long, with a target near 4,080.
This article is for communication only and does not constitute any investment advice!$XAUUSD
In today’s Asian session, gold opened with a big bearish candle and directly broke below yesterday’s New York low, which seems to set up today’s downward trajectory. Throughout the Asian session, gold remained in a downtrend.
During the London session intraday, gold rebounded at one point and broke above the range high from the late Asian session, executing a liquidity capture. Afterwards, it turned downward again and set a new intraday low.
Ahead of the New York session, gold saw some rebound, but after encountering resistance at the Asian session low, it turned lower again and once more set a new intraday low.
Judging from today’s trend of consecutive new intraday lows across the three sessions, the bias toward downside is quite clear. But it’s also worth noting that the cost-effectiveness of shorting today may be lower.
Looking back at the past few days, gold has been consolidating in the 3,900–4,200 range. I’ve repeatedly said that when it reaches above 4,100, the primary strategy is to short, and when it falls below 4,000, the primary strategy is to go long. This was verified again yesterday.
With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for this Thursday, will this range be broken? I think the probability is fairly high. But before this Thursday, the market likely won’t lean heavily toward either extreme level; a more likely scenario is a return to a relatively balanced state—such as the midpoint of the 4,080 range.
Of course, it’s also not ruled out that tonight the price may again come below 4,000 for another liquidity sweep, but this kind of move is more likely to occur tomorrow evening, ahead of the release of the rate decision. In terms of specific execution: if tomorrow’s Asian session gold can come near the 4,000 level and a bullish mindset appears there, you can try going long, with a target around 4,080
This article is for discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice!$XAUUSD