Bitcoin and ETH update, bookmark this post:

GM,
Over the last few weeks I posted more from the fundamental side + the TradFi correlation on why both bitcoin:native and ethereum:native were still weak, still in a bear market, and why the last move was just another bounce, because:
- A DXY rally post with a risk warning for risk assets
- Q and NQ a few days away from their weakness window, which starts August 3rd
- Lack of continuation from Bitcoin buyers above the $67,000 area and from ETH buyers above the $1,860 area
Yes, ETH was looking and still looks better short term. BUT, and there is a big BUT here, not the one we men like.
If ETHUSDT loses the $1,860 area on a daily and especially a weekly close, then the last move was a FalseBreak/Deviation. And a FalseBreak in one direction usually means a bigger move in the opposite direction.
Where we stand now:
- DXY very strong as long as it holds above the 100 area
- Nasdaq already confirmed its Distribution
- Semiconductors (SMH) about to print a new Lower Low
- Bitcoin rejected again from the $67,000 area
- ETH hanging by a thread above the $1,860 area
- U.S. yields still high, which brought hikes back on the table
To conclude:
Although I'm Price Action heavy, I probably do more homework and analyze more economic pillars than most, especially in our neck of the woods. So for now the system still says bearish neutral on crypto, as I noted Monday in the weekly Substack, and correction incoming for TradFi.
IF/when something changes, I'll do my best to be among the first to signal it, because I like being bullish much more than bearish. But I like even more being grounded, transparent, and listening to the tape instead of my emotions or opinions.
For deeper analysis and positioning, see you in the ParadigmShift Discord. Or if you don't have time for that and still want to stay up to date, the weekly monday analysis on Substack 🫡