Will interest rate stability be set in stone? Don’t ignore it—hidden behind the rate-hike topic are uncertainties in the market

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will take effect early Thursday morning. Since December last year, the rate has been kept locked at 3.75%. This is already the fifth consecutive time the Fed has kept rates unchanged, and the market broadly expects that the policy will remain the same this time as well.

Many people mistakenly think that holding rates steady means things will be calm and uneventful—that’s a big misconception. Inflation is still prone to ups and downs, and the idea of restarting rate hikes has been placed on the negotiating table multiple times already. Even if there’s no direct rate hike this time, remarks from Waller will very likely lean hawkish, keeping the option of further rate hikes on the table.

If the wording of the speech leans hawkish—implying that a restart of rate hikes later is not ruled out—then the US dollar could strengthen, risk assets would come under pressure, and BTC and ETH are likely to see a round of selling pressure followed by a pullback.

If the wording is more moderate, with continued confirmation that the rate-hike cycle is paused, then safe-haven funds would keep flowing into the crypto market, helping drive a long-side recovery.

At this stage, the market will enter expectation-driven tug-of-war ahead of the announcement, with heightened volatility. Pin-bar type moves are likely to become the norm. Don’t go all-in betting on a single direction; before the news is released, don’t blindly chase rallies or sell off. All positioning must leave room for error—focus on the signals from the interest rate decision and the post-meeting remarks, then ride the momentum to seize the main rhythm of the market.
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