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With the Middle East situation seeing a brief military easing, international crude oil prices suffered a sharp one-day plunge, and the three major U.S. stock indexes showed clear divergence, along with sector rotation characteristics.
The pullback in crude oil eased some inflation pressure; U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem, and funds shifted back from defensive and energy sectors toward high-beta consumer and technology sectors.
On Monday, the key storyline in the U.S. stock market was “crude oil’s plunge triggered by a cooling of geopolitical risk,” which then drove a reallocation of capital—covering short positions in airlines/consumer stocks, taking profits in energy, and waiting on major tech companies’ earnings reports.
The Federal Reserve will publish its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday. The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but the macro inflation path will still be closely constrained by subsequent developments in the geopolitical situation.
#U.S. Stocks