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Analysis: Bitcoin’s rise is accompanied by declining trading volume; this rally is likely to be vulnerable to macro shocks.

MeNews
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ME News, April 28 (UTC+8). Markus Thielen, research director at 10x Research, said that Bitcoin’s recent rise toward $80,000 was accompanied by a sharp drop in trading volume and a deeply negative funding rate, raising doubts about whether the rally can continue. Bitcoin’s weekly trading volume was down 17% from the average; Ethereum’s trading volume fell 20%; the funding rate dropped 6.8% to the 3rd percentile; and trading volume fell 33% to the 4th percentile. The rally was mainly driven by spot buying or short-covering, rather than leveraged long speculation. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for nine consecutive days, with total net inflows of $2.5 billion in April, and Bitcoin’s market-cap share rising to 60%. Options-market volatility has fallen to the bottom quarter of the historical range, with traders pricing relatively mild price fluctuations. Ethereum’s trading volume declined by more than 50%, and derivatives positions show limited risk appetite. Thielen noted that the market has shifted from a more active trading environment to one where most participants are watching from the sidelines; historically, environments with low funding rates and low trading volume reflect hesitation rather than momentum. However, because leveraged long positions are limited, the risk of downside forced liquidations is lower; if a catalyst emerges, the short-term risk-reward outlook is skewed asymmetrically to the upside. (Source: PANews)
BTC-2.56%
ETH-3.95%
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