Federal Reserve Turning Point: Reshaping the FOMC Meeting Outlook Amid Personnel Turmoil

ME News message, April 28 (UTC+8). For the Federal Reserve, this week is destined to be momentous. After the U.S. Department of Justice wrapped up its investigation into Powell, Republican Senator Tillis on Sunday lifted his obstruction to the confirmation process for the Federal Reserve chair nominee, Waller. The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a vote to advance Waller’s nomination for 10:00 p.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, clearing the way for full Senate confirmation votes before the week of May 11. Hours after the advancement vote, the Federal Reserve will release its April interest rate decision, and Powell will also hold his 63rd—and likely final—Federal Reserve chair press conference.

If Waller’s nomination as Federal Reserve chair and a member of the Board of Governors is approved, Milan—who is currently serving as an interim board member—will be replaced, making him the shortest-serving official since the 1950s. If afterward Milan is unable to re-enter the Federal Reserve, this week he will attend his sixth and final Federal Reserve meeting after having consistently pushed for rate cuts.

The question now is—whether Powell will, as has been customary, give up his seat on the Board of Governors when he steps down as chair of the Federal Reserve (term ends May 15), with the seat expiring on January 31, 2028. If Powell chooses to leave immediately and another “own person” appointed by Trump fills Powell’s vacant Board seat, Trump will have 4 of the 7 Board of Governors members—Waller, Bowman, and Wash—appointed by him, providing support for Trump to take potential aggressive steps (including removing regional Federal Reserve chairs) that undermine the Federal Reserve’s traditional structure. And Powell’s final choice will directly affect the timing and intensity with which Waller or Trump reshapes how the Federal Reserve operates. (Source: JIN10)