7.28 morning analysis

In the early-morning session, the market continues to maintain choppy consolidation and a tug-of-war. After the news-triggered brief spike, the bulls’ momentum has remained insufficient; the pressure zone has repeatedly failed to break through, and positions were largely chosen to exit. BTC has slid all the way down from the 65,722 high, with the low probing to 63,567. ETH spiked up to 1,982 but met resistance and pulled back, with the low touching 1,882. This quick dive directly breaks the short-term rebound structure, while bearish power has concentrated and released.

From the 15-minute Bollinger Band shape, it’s clear to see the price repeatedly breaking below the mid-band support, then continuing to move toward the lower band. The short-term trend has already turned into a weak downtrend. Although there were minor corrective recoveries along the way, the rebound strength is extremely weak—more like a technical retracement after a big drop. It’s difficult to directly reverse the trend. Going forward, you can focus on the rebound resistance range: BTC’s rebound around 64,700 is a key resistance area; ETH’s rebound near 1,935 faces heavy sell pressure. If the rebound cannot hold above these two resistance levels, the probability of continued downside is relatively high. Downside, watch for support at this round’s low; once support is broken again, the room for further decline will open up.

For short-term trading, don’t rush to bottom-fish for a reversal. A more稳健 approach is to wait for the rebound to meet resistance and then decide whether to participate. If you want to gamble for the upside move, you must wait until the price stabilizes at the lows and then reclaims the pressure “watershed” before considering entry.

BTC short-term: 63,600-63,200 area to target 64,700