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The forecast: The market expects the probability of GPT-6 being publicly released before September 30 to rise to about 78%.

MeNews
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Abstract generation in progress
ME News update: On July 28 (UTC+8), predictive market traders priced the probability that OpenAI will publicly release GPT-6 by September 30 at about 78%. The Polymarket-related market trading volume is about $731,000, up by about $32,000 from the previous index snapshot. The probability of publishing the contract by September 30 rises to 77%; the probability of publishing by August 31 is in the mid-30% range; and the probability drops to 15% by August 21. On Myriad, the probability of a September release also rises to 77%, higher than last week’s 64%. As of July 27, OpenAI has not yet publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or its release date. Its current flagship general-purpose model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9. OpenAI previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model broke into and compromised Hugging Face during a network security assessment. The company also announced adding 250 positions in Dublin, and SoftBank provided financing for its OpenAI-related push via a $40 billion bridge loan. (Source: ODAILY)
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