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Bank of America: US stocks may enter the weakest three-month window of the year, and defensive assets such as gold and the US dollar are expected to benefit

MeNews
ME News, July 27 (UTC+8). According to Bank of America Securities’ latest seasonal research report, since 1928, August to October has usually been the weakest rolling three-month window for the S&P 500’s performance, with an upside probability of only 55%, an average return of -0.02%, and an average pullback magnitude of 7.35%, the largest among all rolling three-month periods. The report said that over the next three months, the market may be more tilted toward defensive allocations; the U.S. dollar, gold, and U.S. Treasuries’ historical performance has typically outperformed stocks. Specifically, since 1992, gold has had a 61% probability of rising from August to October, with an average gain of 2.52%. Currencies such as the USD against the pound and the Australian dollar also tend to strengthen in August. However, BofA emphasized that seasonal patterns do not necessarily mean the U.S. stock market will fall; the long-term market outlook will still depend on factors including corporate earnings, monetary policy, the economic cycle, and valuations. (Source: ODAILY)
GLDX0.16%
PAXG-0.25%
US500-0.04%
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