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#夏日创作营 The rebound is here, but it’s still too early for a reversal
The crypto market is going through a very clear change: liquidity has essentially dried up.
In the past, in a market with hot topics, narratives, and liquidity flowing in, newcomers could also quickly find opportunities. But things are different now. The market lacks not projects, nor information, but new participants, new viewpoints, and new creativity.
So what are people in crypto trading now? They’re all trading stocks—stock tokens on exchanges. Even altcoins and mainstream coins aren’t really being played, so the entire crypto industry chain has been disrupted. This is the biggest upheaval since 2017.
Last Friday, people were saying the situation would escalate. But after turning around, it eased again. With the stimulus effect of the US-Iran easing, BTC continued its rebound trend, probing upward to above 65k, then faced pressure and pulled back.
As for Bitcoin’s future direction, it’s very likely to form a large consolidation/relay pattern. In terms of shape, it should be roughly similar to the period from February to May. At this position, Bitcoin will not have a temporary big surge or crash, and there won’t be a particularly clearly dominant trending market—just up and down repeatedly. In the near term, altcoins should see some strength.
As for whether this is a major bottom, the probability is not high. In terms of both time and price space, the adjustment hasn’t been enough. The US also can’t realistically cut rates now, and there’s a lack of upside-stimulating positive catalysts. In addition, historically during midterm election periods, Bitcoin has experienced declines to different degrees. Here, the probability of it being a major bottom is very low.
In the next 1–2 weeks, the overall market will still be a period of intense choppy trading, but overall it will be a process of a second attempt to bottom. $BTC
The crypto market is going through a very clear change: liquidity has dried up.
In the past, in a market, as long as there were hot topics, narratives, and liquidity entering, newcomers could quickly find opportunities too. But now it’s different—the market lacks not projects and not information, but new participants, new viewpoints, and new creativity.
So what is the crypto market trading now? Everyone is trading stocks—stock tokens on exchanges, even small-cap alts and majors aren’t being played anymore. As a result, the entire industry chain in crypto has been disrupted, the biggest upheaval since 2017.
Last Friday, people said the situation would escalate, but then it swung back to calm. Under the stimulus impact as tensions between the US and Iran eased, BTC continued its rebound trend, pushing upward to probe above 65k, then faced pressure and pulled back.
For Bitcoin’s future direction, it’s highly likely it will still form a large consolidation/relay pattern. In terms of the structure, it will be roughly similar to that of February to May. At this position, Bitcoin will not temporarily see a big rise or big fall, nor will there be a particularly obvious strong-trend行情—just back-and-forth churn. In the near term, altcoins should gain some momentum.
As for whether this is a major bottom, the probability is not high. In terms of both time and price range, the correction isn’t enough. The US also can’t possibly cut rates now, so there’s a lack of upside-positive catalysts. In addition, historically during midterm election periods, Bitcoin has seen different degrees of declines. Here, the probability of it being a major bottom is very low.
Over the next 1–2 weeks, the overall market will still be characterized by fierce sideways volatility, but overall it’s a process of a second dip. $BTC