After SpaceX Starship’s first successful test flight following its IPO, what does it mean for SPCX’s stock price?

On July 24, 2026, at 5:51 p.m. local time, SpaceX successfully launched Starship from Starbase in Texas, completing the company’s first major test flight since its record-breaking IPO in June. The rocket lifted off smoothly into orbit and, about 18 minutes into the flight, successfully placed 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. All 33 Raptor engines on the super-heavy booster were ignited; the booster landed in the Gulf of Mexico as planned, while the Starship upper-stage ship completed a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on social media: “The Starship is intact, floating in the ocean, and transmitting telemetry data.”

However, the cheers at the launch site did not translate to the capital markets. On July 24, SpaceX stock (SPCX) closed regular trading at $115.07, down 2.68%, setting a new low since going public. How could a seemingly perfect test flight fail to lift the stock price? What logical gap exists between Starship’s technical breakthroughs and SPCX’s market performance?

What technical breakthroughs were completed in Starship’s 13th test flight

This test flight was the second flight of the Starship V3 version and the rocket’s 13th test launch. Compared with issues seen in previous test flights—such as explosions, uncontrolled rollovers, and engines shutting down early—this mission achieved multiple key breakthroughs.

During the launch phase, all 33 Raptor engines on the super-heavy booster successfully ignited, pushing Starship to near-orbital velocity. About 6 minutes after liftoff, the booster landed in the Gulf of Mexico according to the planned sequence, a major improvement over the prior test flight—in the earlier 12th test, the booster failed to complete a return burn and ultimately crashed into the sea in an uncontrolled state. In this flight, Starship successfully reignited a Raptor engine while in orbit, validating a critical capability required for future orbital missions.

Even more notable, this was the first time Starship deployed 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites. These satellites were produced at SpaceX’s factory in Redmond, Washington, and the solar panels installed on them can generate twice as much power as the prior-generation Starlink satellites. SpaceX’s Starlink team has successfully established contact with all 20 V3 satellites. The Starship upper-stage ship ultimately completed what was described as “the gentlest splashdown ever” in the Indian Ocean, with the spacecraft staying intact and providing, for the first time, important footage of a fully functioning heat-shield system.

SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot said the landing maneuver was nearly perfect. However, it is worth noting that this mission did not attempt the aerial robotic arm capture and recovery technology that was successfully validated in the 2024 test flight—a technology that is central to achieving rapid rocket reuse.

Why a successful test flight failed to boost the SPCX share price

News of the successful test flight did not change SPCX’s downward trajectory. On July 24, SPCX closed at $115.07, the lowest closing record since going public. From the intraday high of $225.64 in mid-June, the cumulative decline has exceeded 49%. Market capitalization has shrunk from a peak above $2.6 trillion to about $1.51 trillion.

The capital market’s “cold treatment” of the successful test flight reflects multiple structural contradictions. First, the stock’s extreme boom-and-bust pattern since SpaceX went public already carries a strong post-IPO speculative tone—its share price surged nearly 50% at one point during the first three days after listing, then entered a persistent downtrend. Second, investors’ risk assessment of the Starship program has shifted from “whether the technology can succeed” to “whether commercial returns can be realized.” Starship’s R&D spending has exceeded $15 billion, and the rocket has not yet completed a single full orbital flight; it is still a long way from crewed missions and commercial operations.

TMF Associates, an industry advisory firm for the satellite sector, expert Tim Farrar noted that this test flight proved SpaceX has made some progress on the Starship program, but “there is still a long way to go before achieving rapid reuse of the full stack.” For the capital market, while兑现 technical milestones matters, the ultimate anchor for pricing is the profitability model and cash flow expectations.

What the post-IPO valuation correction reflects about market expectations

SpaceX completed what it described as the biggest IPO in history on June 12, 2026, at an offering price of $135 per share. Before listing, the company’s target valuation was about $1.75 trillion. On the third trading day after listing, the stock price briefly climbed to a historical high of $225.64.

However, the subsequent sustained decline signals that the market is undergoing a major round of valuation correction. The share price fell more than 49% from its peak, indicating that the market’s pricing logic for SpaceX has fundamentally changed. After the initial excitement of the IPO faded, investors began to scrutinize the company’s fundamentals more cautiously—SpaceX is still unprofitable and needs to keep pouring substantial capital into the Starship project and AI infrastructure.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said that ongoing selling has pushed the stock price to a level where the market effectively assigns little valuation even to the AI business. He believes that many investors applied a steep discount to Grok and Cursor, effectively valuing AI at zero or even negative value. The reason, in his view, is that compared with the space and connectivity business, AI requires high capital expenditures and the economic returns are largely uncertain. This assessment reveals the core of SpaceX’s valuation dilemma today: the market is re-evaluating the true value of every segment within the company’s diversified businesses.

Why the release of restricted shares became a looming sword over the market

The most direct near-term pressure on SPCX’s price action is the upcoming release of restricted shares. On August 4, SpaceX will publish its first earnings report after going public; on August 6, about 911.5 million shares held before the IPO will be released—this figure even exceeds the 629 million shares that SpaceX sold in the June IPO.

This means that after the release, nearly 30% of the outstanding shares could flood the market overnight. More importantly, the company’s current share price is far below the $175.50 threshold that would trigger the release conditions. Many early investors and insiders have costs far lower than the current price, giving them a strong motivation to realize gains after the release.

The market already had ample expectation of this. After the July 24 test flight success, SPCX fell further after hours by another 1.48% to $113.37. The cumulative decline over the past five trading days was 7.2%. Short positions are also elevated—by mid-July, short positions accounted for about 29% of the float. These figures suggest that bears are actively betting on further downside for SPCX.

The Musk effect: the transmission logic from SpaceX to Dogecoin

The significance of the Starship test flight is not limited to the space industry and the stock market. As one of the most influential figures in the crypto industry, Musk’s major events involving his companies can transmit sentiment into the digital asset market.

Historical data show that Musk’s tweets and SpaceX-related announcements have repeatedly triggered significant price swings in DOGE. When SpaceX announced it would accept dogecoin for purchases and use DOGE-1 for a lunar mission, the cryptocurrency rose sharply. A successful Starship launch could lead the market to become more positively inclined toward Musk-related endeavors, potentially increasing buy pressure on dogecoin.

However, the magnitude of this transmission effect is diminishing at the margin. In March 2026, Musk released an AI-generated video of “the father of dogecoin,” which generated almost no market reaction. DOGE is currently around $0.073, down about 55% from a year ago. The market’s sensitivity to Musk’s “calling the shots” has declined significantly.

But SpaceX’s status as a public company adds a new dimension to this linkage. SpaceX holds more than 18,000 bitcoins (the precise figure is 18,712), with an acquisition cost of about $661 million and a valuation of $26k as of March 31, 2026. This effectively exposes SPCX shareholders—indirectly—to bitcoin price volatility. SpaceX’s quarterly earnings reports will reveal changes in its bitcoin holdings, and the reporting cycles built around corporate crypto assets at scale will form a new market narrative.

Stopping Falcon orders: is it a gamble or a strategic inevitability

SpaceX’s ongoing strategic shift may be a deeper variable for understanding its share price trajectory. According to media reports, SpaceX has stopped accepting new launch bookings for Falcon rockets after 2028 and has paused rideshare launch reservations, reallocating resources entirely toward Starship, which is still in the testing stage.

For years, the Falcon series has been a mainstay for global space launch services and SpaceX’s most mature source of revenue. Stopping new orders effectively sets an expiration date for this core revenue stream. This move shows the company’s determination to tilt resources toward Starship, but it also means that in the short term, revenue sources may narrow.

This is an unprecedented gamble. If Starship cannot meet commercial launch standards by the end of 2028, many space companies that depend on SpaceX for orbital launch missions will face a severe capacity shortfall. The capital market’s pricing has already partially reflected this—because the test flight success failed to boost the stock price, it indicates investors care more about Starship’s commercialization timeline and the impact on cash flow than about technical milestones alone.

From technical milestones to commercial returns: SpaceX’s long-term value logic

Despite near-term pressure from restricted-share releases and a headwind in market sentiment, SpaceX’s long-term value logic has not been fully dismissed by Wall Street. Bloomberg’s roundup data show that nearly 80% of analysts covering the stock maintain “Buy” ratings. The median consensus target price remains near $225 per share.

Fundamental factors supporting this longer-term view include: SpaceX controls more than 90% of the rocket launch market, establishing an estimated decade-long technical and scale lead in commercial space; its Starlink satellite internet business continues to expand, and deploying V3 satellites will further increase network capacity and service quality; the company is expanding into high-margin areas such as low-latency in-orbit data centers and AI infrastructure.

A Morgan Stanley analyst believes that sustained selling has already pushed the stock price close to a critical level, and that market pessimism has not materially worsened relative to the company’s fundamentals—creating an attractive opportunity for investors. However, the premise of this view is that the Starship project can be commercialized within a reasonable timeframe, and that the selling pressure caused by the restricted-share releases will not fundamentally alter the company’s equity structure and governance expectations.

Summary

SpaceX’s first test flight success since its Starship IPO was, on the technical level, a milestone—33 Raptor engines all ignited, 20 Starlink V3 satellites were successfully deployed, and the Starship upper-stage ship achieved a “gentle splashdown.” However, the fact that the SPCX share price closed at $115.07, the lowest since going public, shows that the capital market’s pricing logic for technical breakthroughs has changed. The post-IPO valuation bubble is being squeezed out, the pressure from restricted-share releases remains unresolved, Starship’s commercialization timeline is still unclear, and there is controversy around the valuation of the AI business—multiple factors combined to prevent this major positive development from translating into stock support.

For the crypto market, the Musk effect is still present, but with diminishing marginal impact. SpaceX’s holding of more than 18,000 bitcoins creates a direct balance-sheet linkage between SPCX and crypto assets, and the positive sentiment generated by Starship’s success could provide a temporary boost in sentiment for Musk-linked crypto assets such as DOGE. Still, given DOGE’s continued weakness and the market’s reduced sensitivity to Musk’s “calls,” the real effectiveness of this transmission should be assessed cautiously.

SpaceX is in the painful transition period from a private space pioneer to a public listed company. Starship’s technical pathway is being validated, but the validation of its business model has only just begun.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What were the main achievements of Starship’s 13th test flight?

This test flight delivered multiple breakthroughs: all 33 Raptor engines successfully ignited; the booster achieved a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico; Starship reignited an engine while in orbit; 20 Starlink V3 satellites were successfully deployed; the upper-stage ship completed a “gentlest splashdown” in the Indian Ocean and remained intact.

Q: Why did SPCX fall after the test flight success?

Mainly due to suppressed expectations ahead of the release of IPO restricted shares. On August 6, about 911.5 million shares will be released, and the market is concerned that insiders will sell. In addition, uncertainty around Starship’s commercialization timeline, controversy over the valuation of the AI business, and the company still being unprofitable all contributed to downward pressure on the stock price.

Q: What does SpaceX’s bitcoin holdings mean for investors?

SpaceX holds 18,712 bitcoins as a strategic cash reserve. This means SPCX shareholders are indirectly exposed to bitcoin price fluctuations, and each quarter the company’s earnings report will disclose changes in its holdings.

Q: What impact does Starship’s successful test flight have on DOGE’s price?

Past experience suggests that major Musk-related events have historically caused DOGE price fluctuations. But in recent years, the transmission effect has been diminishing at the margin; any real impact needs to be judged based on broader market sentiment at the time.

Q: How do analysts view SPCX’s long-term outlook?

Nearly 80% of analysts covering the stock give “Buy” ratings. The median consensus target price is around $225. But in the short term, the stock faces pressure from restricted-share releases and risks related to valuation readjustment.