#直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes

Bitcoin 2026.07.26

I. Market Snapshot (spot BTC, current price in the $64,400–$64,900 range)

1. Intraday & 24-hour trend
The market saw a small stabilization and rebound within 24 hours, with mild consolidation after stopping the fall. The technical rebound began from the low of $63,700. However, rebound momentum has remained relatively weak. This is a repair phase after a selloff, not a bullish reversal signal. BTC shows stronger resilience than Ethereum. Altcoins are clearly diverging: MEME coins have seen a short-term sentiment recovery, but mainstream altcoins’ rebound strength is limited. Overall, the market remains in a box-range consolidation pattern after a pullback from high levels, and overhead selling pressure is still heavy.
2. Market sentiment & fund liquidation
The Fear & Greed Index edged up to 31, still within the Fear zone. Market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and dip-buying funds are cautious. In the 24-hour derivatives market, short-term longs are mainly being closed out, while shorts are taking small profits; there has been no large-scale cascade of liquidations. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD green histogram shrank, indicating marginally weaker bearish momentum, but no effective bullish crossover has formed yet—so the sustainability of the rebound remains doubtful.
3. ETF fund flows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for two consecutive days. Near-term institutional profits have been realized, and there has been no phase of incremental buying. However, weekly flows still remain net inflows, with long-term funds not fleeing on a large scale; there is support potential below.

II. Key Price Levels

Short-term resistance (top-down)

1. Strong resistance: $65,600–$65,900 (turned into core resistance after breaking prior support; only a breakout with volume and sustained hold can reverse short-term weakness)
2. Short-term resistance: $65,100–$65,300 (the first intraday resistance)

Short-term support (bottom-up)

1. First support: $63,700–$63,900 (the low of this round’s pullback; the short-term pivot between bulls and bears)
2. Strong support: $63,000–$63,300 (the lifeline of this round’s rebound; a sustained break below would completely end the rebound structure)

III. Logic Behind Bull/Bear Drivers

Bullish factors

1. ETF weekly funds continue to post net inflows; the institutional medium- to long-term bottoming allocation logic remains unchanged. The pre-$62,500 bottoming chips are dense, leaving limited room for further deep downside;
2. On-chain long-term holders’ positions are stable, with no concentrated selloff by “whales”;
3. The market still retains expectations for the U.S. Clarity crypto bill in the future, limiting the continued build-up of pessimism;
4. After the price is oversold in the short term, there is a need for technical repair.

Today’s main bearish pressure

1. U.S. Treasury yields stay elevated. The market still prices in the Fed maintaining high rates or even additional hikes. Risk-free assets face ongoing pressure; Middle East geopolitical conflicts lift oil prices, inflation worries persist, and funds prioritize gold as a safe-haven;
2. ETF daily flows shifted from inflows to outflows, and there is a lack of short-term institutional incremental buying to prop up prices;
3. The prior high at $66,700 formed a double-top resistance; bulls’ confidence was damaged, and the rebound lacks supportive trading volume;
4. The Fed’s upcoming rate decision meeting is near this week. The market generally stays cautious, reducing risk exposure in advance;
5. Expectations for near-term implementation of crypto regulatory legislation have been lowered, continuing to suppress market risk appetite.

IV. Outlook by Timeframe

1. Short term (1–3 days): Weak consolidation with a limited rebound ceiling
Trading range: $63,700–$65,300. If no new bullish catalyst appears, the rebound is unlikely to break through the $65,300 resistance. After the repair completes, the market will likely retest support. If $63,700 is effectively broken, the market will likely probe deeper toward the $63,000 support. To turn weakness around, bulls must hold above $65,900 with expansion in volume.
2. Medium term (1–4 weeks): A decision window—focus on the Fed’s rate decision outcome
The broader pattern of a wide-range consolidation remains unchanged. Two scenarios: if $63,000 support holds, the market maintains a large box-range consolidation; if support fails, a new round of deep pullback begins. The direction of the future trend will largely depend on how hawkish or dovish the Fed’s remarks are this time.
3. Long term (quarterly scale)
The overall wide-range consolidation pattern has not changed, and there is limited room for an extreme crash. To trigger a new uptrend, it would require clear Fed rate-cut expectations plus a dual resonance with positive crypto policy news. At present, there is a lack of key upside catalysts.

V. Key Signals to Monitor Next

1. Macros: volatility in U.S. Treasury yields, and the situation in the Middle East; focus on this week’s Fed rate decision results and officials’ comments;
2. Funds: whether spot ETFs can return to net inflows; liquidation size in derivatives, and changes in long/short positioning;
3. Technicals: the strength of defense at the $63,700 support level, and whether the rebound can effectively break above the $65,300 resistance level.