BTC worth $65,300—are you still waiting for a “lower” price?

Iran has called a ceasefire, ETFs have seen net inflows for 6 straight days totaling nearly $1 billion, and BTC has violently rebounded 13% from 57,800—but just now, the price is stuck around 65k, unable to break through. Both longs and shorts are waiting for the July 28 FOMC. Is this rebound the end point, or the final shakeout before the violent surge?

Look at the surface: the rebound is fierce, and the market is building up power in a sideways range.

In early July, it surged from 57,800 to 67k—up nearly $10k. Over the past 24 hours, it has been stuck around $65,300, stuck between ups and downs. The weekly chart has four consecutive bullish candles, but the increase is shrinking—typical “digesting phase after a big rally.” The candlesticks tell you: the 50-day EMA at 65k is holding. The rising channel remains intact, and all technical indicators are sending one message: don’t get shaken out of the car—the direction will come out soon.

First thing: Iran has paused hostilities, but you may still be living in fear.

The U.S.-Iran conflict has temporarily halted, oil prices have fallen, and risk appetite has broadly rebounded. BTC directly pumped from 58k to 67k—this is the “emotional repair” bonus granted by geopolitics.

But look at your own hands—are you still waiting for a pullback to 60k? Do you still feel like “it will drop again”?

Same script: after the 2024 Iranian missile incident, BTC rose from 56k to 72k, and retail traders sold everything at 61k and missed. This time, too? Geopolitical easing is the strongest emotion catalyst. By the time you feel “it’s safe,” the price is already no longer at 65k.

Second thing: ETFs keep flowing back, but retail is still cursing “a fake bull.”

Since mid-July, ETFs have seen net inflows for 6 straight days, totaling nearly $1 billion, led by IBIT. Although there were outflows of $460 million again on July 23-24, the overall trend has already reversed.

When there were outflows of $4-5 billion in June, you were cutting losses. When inflows returned to nearly $1 billion in July, you were waiting for a pullback.

ETFs selling is news. ETFs buying is a signal.

Institutions have already laid out their positions on the floor—you’re still staring at the day-to-day fluctuations and shouting “crash.” Who’s making money? You don’t need me to say it, right?

Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that must be taken seriously.

The rising channel launched from 57,800 is still intact. The price is exactly sitting along the 50-day EMA (65k). The MACD has just turned bullish, and the weekly chart has four consecutive bullish candles—this is a classic “building energy during a rebound” pattern.

But don’t forget: 1B-67k is the short-term lifeline. Only if it’s pierced on volume can it open the path to 70k. If the FOMC turns hawkish, BTC could pull back to 64k or even 63.5k (the 200-week moving average)—that would be another “bulls’ fear test.”

Longs vs shorts—you decide

On one side:

- Geopolitical easing, risk appetite returning
- ETFs switching from large outflows to net inflows (cumulative nearly $1 billion)
- Rising channel + 50-day EMA support holds effectively
- Four consecutive bullish weekly candles; the medium-term trend has flipped bullish

On the other side:

- 460M-67k failed three times, with clear sell pressure
- FOMC meeting is imminent (July 28-29), high uncertainty
- Actual interest rates still at 2.3%-2.35%, suppressing risk assets
- Thin liquidity (summer), fake breakouts for longs
- Key level 65,300, only $1,300 away from the life-or-death line at 64k

- Overhead resistance: 66,500-67k → 70k → 75k
- Downside support: 64k-64,500 → 63.5k (200-week moving average) → 60k

Trading strategy (no fluff)

For short-term traders:

Near the current price of 65,300, open a small long position. Add on a pullback to 64,500-64,800. Set a stop-loss at 63.5k (if the close breaks, exit). First target: 66,500-67k—sell half first. If it breaks above 67k, chase to 70k. Don’t short here; shorting at this level after a geopolitical positive catalyst could blow you up.

For swing traders:

Wait for the FOMC to land. If dovish + a breakout above 67k on rising volume → chase longs and look for 75k. If hawkish + a breakdown below 64k on rising volume → wait to pick up at 63k-63.5k. Don’t bet on direction—let the market tell you the answer.

For long-term believers:

Buy with fixed entries below 63k, eyes closed. The 200-week moving average is the “iron bottom.” The target for end-2026 is 90k-100k, betting on the rate-cut cycle + continued ETF inflows. But remember—if BTC breaks below 60k, exit and observe first. Surviving is what gives you the right to bottom-fish.

BTC right now is like itself in January 2024—before the ETF went live.

Everyone thinks: “Good news is already priced in, so it must drop.” The result: it ran from 40k all the way to 70k.

The day 67k breaks through, you’ll realize:

Turns out BTC isn’t the problem—it’s that every time you should be adding, you choose to wait. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ETH $SOL