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Right now, BTC is around $65,160, up about 1.1%. Today’s range is $64,359–65,598.
Today, July 27
Buyers have the edge, but the price is nearing resistance.
Main scenario: range-bound moves between $64,500–66,000.
A hold above $65,600 could lead to $66,500–67,200.
If the breakout turns out to be false, a pullback to $64,300–64,500 is likely.
Below $64,300, the next important support is $63,700.
Tomorrow, July 28
A two-day FOMC meeting starts today, so sharp moves and false breakouts are possible. The FOMC decision itself and the press conference will take place on July 29.
My most likely range for tomorrow:
$63,700–66,800
Scenarios:
55% — sideways: $64,000–66,000.
28% — upside: a breakout of $65,600 and a move to $66,800–67,500.
17% — downside: a drop below $64,300 with targets of $63,000–63,700.
Today’s rise is supported by improving risk sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions. But the past two trading days of US Bitcoin ETFs showed outflows of roughly $225 million and $240 million, so strong sustained upside is not guaranteed yet.
My takeaway: buying at the very top before a breakout above $65,600 is risky. The main bullish signal is a close above $66,000. The main warning sign is a drop below $64,300.