Late-night alarm! A 5.2% yield in the bond market triggers a tsunami, forcing the Fed to raise rates. Is the bottoming process for $BTC and $ETH a trap or the real bottom?

Friends, sit down—I’ll tell you something real. Recently, the entire crypto circle has been talking about AI, computing power, and chips, and it seems like a boom is everywhere. But a hard remark has come from Michael Hartnett, the chief strategist at a U.S. bank. He said the bond market is the true executioner of this AI bull run—more dangerous than any bubble.

On July 27, Hartnett threw out a set of data in his latest report that makes my back feel cold: the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury surged to 5.2%, the highest level since June 2007; real yields also hit 3%, a level not seen since November 2008. Even more unsettling, U.S. technology bond prices have fallen to a two-year low. These three things happening at the same time means the financing costs across the entire financial system are going through the roof, while most stock players haven’t realized this storm is coming yet.

His core framework is “FCI > EPS,” which translates to: financial conditions have tightened, and their damaging power far exceeds the support provided by corporate earnings. Your AI concept stocks may make even more money, but they can’t withstand the surge in funding costs. Hartnett’s logic chain is clear—bond-market pressure won’t just disappear on its own; instead, it will force the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates. He’s blunt about it: from a political perspective, it’s wiser for the Fed to raise rates now than to wait until September. And rate hikes are the worst outcome the stock market wants to see. Once the bull-market combination of “bond yields rising and bank stocks rising” flips into “the higher the yields, the more bank stocks fall,” that becomes the fuse that leads all risk assets to deleverage.

Don’t think this is just a one-man show for U.S. Treasuries. Hartnett specifically highlighted the names of mega-scale cloud computing firms—the AI giants. Their credit default swaps (CDS) have already reached historical highs, and bondholders are voting with their feet. The real market anxiety has shifted from “can we make money” to “who will foot the bill.” The AI capital expenditure frenzy requires an enormous amount of funding to be poured in continuously. If the bond market shuts the door, where will the money come from for those cutting-edge models and memory chips that cost hundreds of millions of dollars—or more?

Google and Intel’s earnings are clearly solid, but chip stocks are still being dumped. This slap wakes up many people—the real big danger isn’t inside the stock market; it’s in the bond market. Brian Garrett, a top derivatives trader at Goldman Sachs, has also warned for two straight weeks that the pain in the credit market will intensify. Hartnett even pulled together a basket called “blue-collar semiconductors,” including Texas Instruments, ADENO, NXP, Microchip Technology, Onsemi, and other industrial chip companies. Since the June peak, this basket is down 21%.

If you hear this, you might ask: what about my $BTC and $ETH ? Don’t worry—good stuff comes later. On a more macro level, Hartnett provided an era-defining view: the 2020s are an era of the rise of political populism, globalization giving way to national security, and fiscal excess shifting toward AI capital expenditure excess. Against this backdrop, “supply” becomes the dominant force rather than “demand.” Immigration controls suppress labor supply (the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has fallen to the lowest level since 1969), tariffs restrict import supply (the U.S. plans to impose new tariffs on 60 trade partners), and geopolitics disrupts oil supply (about 6.4 billion barrels of seaborne oil per day around the world pass through vulnerable chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz).

In contrast, constraints on bond supply and stock supply are easing. The U.S. government runs a $2 trillion fiscal deficit every year, with $1 trillion in annual interest expense. Even if it collects $250 billion from tariffs, it still can’t fill that hole. Companies with negative free cash flow are cutting back on stock buybacks, further weakening support for stock prices.

It is precisely in this context that Hartnett made an assessment that surprised many people—gold and $BTC are quietly bottoming in 2026. He noted that the bank stock index representing the “main street” will outperform the broker-dealer and private equity indices representing “Wall Street” in the second half of the 2020s. More specifically, he even listed Hong Kong real estate stocks as one of the most attractive long-term buy opportunities—these stocks’ prices are still stuck at levels from 30 years ago. He said he would buy those Hong Kong real estate stocks on dips during any tightening by the Federal Reserve or any sell-off triggered by a currency crisis at the Bank of Japan.

So, what do you think? The entire narrative has changed. The AI capital frenzy hits the bond market’s iron fist, with rate-hike expectations hanging overhead. But those assets abandoned by mainstream capital—gold, $BTC, bank stocks, and Hong Kong stocks that are cheap to the point of dust—are being quietly accumulated by smart money. Hartnett’s short-term trading advice is ruthless: go long defensive stocks, high-dividend stocks, and long-duration bonds; go short bank stocks, broker-dealer stocks, tech stocks, and industrial stocks.

Remember: that gray rhinoceros of the bond market won’t greet you when it starts charging. Does the $BTC you hold collapse together with the bond market, or does it become the true king of safe havens? Time will answer, but the data is already laid out.

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#直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes # Long鑫 listed today traded 90.1 billion #ETH back to $1,900