The Fed will release its interest rate decision early Thursday morning.

This FOMC is interesting—several variables are moving at the same time.
After expectations of a ceasefire between the US and Iran emerged, oil prices fell sharply. The energy component, which had been weighing on the inflation narrative last week, suddenly loosened. Initial jobless claims were 187k, below expectations, and the labor market is still holding up. With these two data points stacked together, the Fed actually has more room to maneuver—but that doesn’t mean they will use it.
Powell’s logic lately is very clear: good data doesn’t automatically mean rate cuts; it depends on the trend. One week of improvement doesn’t establish a trend. He won’t give the market a surprise this time just because oil prices fell.
I think they will most likely hold steady, but the wording will be more dovish. If the statement includes phrases like “inflation pressures are easing,” or if the dot plot shows some委员 raising the number of expected rate cuts within the year, then that would be the real signal. What the market is pricing in right now is rate cuts starting in September. This FOMC’s role is to confirm or deny that expectation—not to act directly.
In the same week, there are also earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. Capital expenditure guidance is the real focus for the market. If tech giants collectively increase AI infrastructure spending, the compute narrative gets another leg—this could provide a more direct boost to crypto and chips than the FOMC’s statements.
FTX’s fifth round of $900 million creditor repayments will begin on July 31. The timing of this money entering the market overlaps heavily with the FOMC. Historically, after FTX repayments are implemented, short-term liquidity tends to improve, and the crypto market has shown similar reactions.
BTC has reclaimed $65K, and the Fear & Greed Index has returned to 30. Sentiment is repairing but hasn’t reached the greed zone yet. This is not the moment to chase. It’s a time to wait for confirmation.
Before 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, direction is unclear. Wait for the statement wording, wait for Powell’s press conference, wait for the Microsoft and Meta earnings—these catalysts all hit in the same week, so volatility is guaranteed. Let the data speak for direction.
I won’t add here now—I'll decide after the results come out on Thursday.
DYOR, not investment advice.