Haven’t updated the market for three days—did you miss it?

First, here’s the basic fundamentals for this week:
Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region saw a temporary cooling off. Brent crude fell by about 5.2% at one point, while WTI fell by about 5.4%. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both pulled back in tandem, and U.S. stock index futures rebounded. This combination is favorable for crypto in the short term, because it simultaneously eases inflation worries and the expectation of tighter liquidity.
But the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Official sources show that the FOMC will hold a meeting on July 28–29. Around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the statement will be released; at 2:30, the press conference will be held by Powell in Washington. The market currently still prices in roughly a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty of this meeting is clearly higher than that of a typical rate decision meeting.
After that, at 20:30 Beijing time on July 30, the initial estimate of the U.S. Q2 GDP and June PCE will be released at the same time; at 20:30 on July 31, the Q2 Employment Cost Index will be released. In other words, there is a continuous macro-volatility window in the second half of the week.
As for ETF flows, they show improvement but an unstable state:
On July 24, the spot BTC ETF recorded net outflows of about $240.1 million, ending the prior streak of consecutive inflows;
Spot ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $70.70 million on the day;
However, ETH still had net inflows of about $103.9 million for the week, and from July to date, net inflows are about $337.7 million.
This suggests that institutional demand has improved compared with June, but it is still not enough to confirm sustained one-way inflows.
In the next post, we’ll talk about the price action!
$BTC $XAU