Haven’t updated in three days.

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Today, first let’s go over the fundamentals for this week:

Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region showed a temporary cooldown. Brent crude fell by around 5.2% at one point, while WTI dropped by about 5.4%. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both pulled back, and U.S. stock index futures rebounded. This combination is beneficial for crypto in the short term, because it simultaneously eases inflation concerns and expectations of tighter liquidity.

But the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Officially, the FOMC will hold a meeting on July 28–29. The statement will be released around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, followed by a press conference at 2:30 at the same time as the Wall Street session. The market is currently pricing in roughly a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty of this meeting is clearly higher than that of a typical policy meeting.

Then at 20:30 Beijing time on July 30, the initial estimate of the U.S. Q2 GDP and June PCE will be released at the same time; at 20:30 on July 31, the Q2 employment cost index will be published. In other words, there will be a continuous macro volatility window in the second half of the week.

ETF flows are showing improvement, but an unstable one:

On July 24, BTC spot ETF net outflows were about $240.1 million, ending the prior streak of inflows.
ETH spot ETF that day had net outflows of about $70.7 million.
However, ETH still had net inflows of about $103.9 million for the week, and from July to date, net inflows are about $337.7 million.

This suggests institutional demand has improved compared with June, but not enough to confirm sustained one-way inflows.

In the next post, we’ll talk about price action!

$BTC $XAU