$ETH Weekend surged up by $100! But don’t get too happy yet—this knife from the Fed is still hanging over your head

Has this ETH weekend pullback and rebound actually paid off?

From the 1846 low all the way to 1982, it pulled nearly $140; after news of a ceasefire came out of the Middle East, ETH jumped straight up by 4%. Those who cut losses around 1850 are probably regretting it right about now.

There are two most critical things on the news front.

First, the Middle East has temporarily calmed down. The U.S. military stopped striking Iran over the past two nights, and Iran’s retaliatory actions were paused as well. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and Oman are still talking; even though the strait is still closed, at least it’s not escalating into fighting again. Oil prices fell nearly 4% to $96.7. Safe-haven funds returned to risk assets, and ETH became one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Second, the bigger variable is still coming—the Fed rate decision early Wednesday morning. The market currently expects rates to stay unchanged, but the probability of a rate hike in September has already surged to 82%. The chairman’s remarks are likely to be hawkish, with rate cuts pushed directly to 2027. Also, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already held steady above 4.68%, reaching a new yearly high. In plain terms, short-term sentiment tailwinds may get slapped back by macro policy.

Looking at the chart: near 1970 now, MA7 has already turned upward at 1952, MA25 is at 1917, and MA99 is at 1887—both are still below the current price. Technically, things are indeed improving, but 1982 is a level it failed to break through twice today; overhead resistance is clearly visible. On-chain data also shows that short-term speculative long positions are gradually taking profit at higher levels.

Trading plan: For a more conservative long, wait for a pullback and enter again around 1930 to 1940; for more aggressive traders, enter around the current price between 1960 and 1970. For shorting, if it stalls after pumping into the 2000 to 2050 range, place shorts nearby.

Personal view: This ETH rebound is driven by both geopolitical easing and an oversold bounce, but the real test is the Fed on Wednesday. If the speech turns hawkish, you won’t even be able to hold 1950.

#ETH重返1900美元