Analyst: Changxin surged sharply on its first day of listing, but it still can’t change the global DRAM competition landscape

ME News: On July 27 (UTC+8), Milk Road analyst posted on X to analyze the surge in Changxin Technology’s stock price. He said that in the past less than a year, Changxin’s global DRAM market share for storage rose from less than 4% to about 7.7%-8%. In this year’s first quarter, revenue grew 719% year over year to RMB 50.8 billion. This growth was mainly driven by Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron shifting more capacity toward AI server storage (especially HBM), which created a shortage in the supply of traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5, allowing Changxin Storage to step in and fill demand for mid-to-low-end DRAM.

However, Changxin Storage’s current capacity is far from enough to meet global demand. Its monthly wafer capacity is about 290k-320k wafers, which is smaller than Samsung’s approximately 630k wafers and SK hynix’s roughly 500k wafers. In addition, the United States’ export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are also limiting Changxin Storage’s pace of further expansion. He believes Changxin Storage will still find it difficult to enter the HBM market in the short term, so it will not change the supply-and-demand landscape for AI storage. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron will continue to hold advantages in high-margin products such as HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, and the global memory shortage cycle may still persist. (Source: ODAILY)