#ETH重返1900美元 Bulls launch a desperate counterattack; the bears face a “massacre”

First, let’s take a look at the core data everyone cares about most. As of noon today, Ethereum has seen an extremely strong rebound. ETH climbed steadily from the lows; its 24-hour gain is as high as 3.25%, with a peak touching $1,967, setting a new high in nearly 14 days. The current price is holding around $1,954. What’s even more intense than the price surge is the “river of blood” under the order book—this rebound directly left the shorts stunned. CoinGlass data shows that over the past 24 hours, the total value of liquidated positions across all crypto derivatives markets reached $213 million, of which short positions liquidated accounted for $160 million, making up more than 75%！A total of 56,396 traders were liquidated. Today, the market’s “Fear and Greed Index” has risen back to 30, up 4 points from the previous day, but it still remains in the “Fear” zone. This suggests that although the chart is rising, most retail traders are still rattled by the recent back-and-forth volatility and are unwilling to chase at full size.

Why did ETH suddenly pump so hard today?
Wasn’t it just drifting lower a few days ago—how did it suddenly explode across the board?
In fact, the logic behind it is the convergence of “geopolitical risk cooling,” “capital returning,” and a “technical short squeeze”：
First, macro risk appetite is recovering; the crash in crude oil “unlocks” ETH. This is the most core trigger for this rebound. Over the weekend, key news emerged that the U.S. has paused a new round of airstrikes against Iran, and Tehran also said it will pause retaliatory actions. The tug-of-war between the U.S. and Iran has caused marginal cooling in regional safe-haven sentiment. Meanwhile, Brent crude has fallen from a high above $100 per barrel to about $97, significantly easing the market’s inflation concerns and giving crypto markets room to breathe.
Second, shorts were overly crowded, triggering a technical “squeeze.”
During the earlier period of slow decline, the market accumulated a large number of short positions. When price neared the strong support around $1,870, any small change could trigger a chain reaction from short covering. Essentially, this surge is a “squeeze” move under conditions of limited-position battle.
Third, ETF capital flows out are only for short-term rebalancing, not a broad bearish stance.
Although on July 24, the spot ETH ETF recorded a single-day net outflow of $70.62 million, this mainly reflects institutions taking short-term profit ahead of the uncertainty around the Fed’s July 28–29 FOMC meeting. From a weekly perspective, ETH ETFs still have accumulated net inflows of more than $330 million, and the underlying logic behind medium- to long-term institutional定投 (DCA) has not changed.

Survival rules in extreme fear
Now that you know the cause, you have to treat the symptom. Faced with this “sentiment rebound” driven mainly by geopolitics and capital rebalancing, here are practical suggestions for this afternoon and the near term：
1、Hardcore risk control: strictly control position sizing; never chase blindly
The biggest taboo in this market is “FOMO (fear of missing out)”. The current rebound is more about short covering and short-term capital trading. Spot trading volume has declined month-over-month, indicating a lack of truly supportive buy-side demand. It’s recommended to keep total exposure within 30%–40%, and hold sufficient U (stablecoins). Never chase during a rapid rally; protect against the drop after sentiment cools off.
2、Watch Ethereum (ETH) key support and resistance levels; sell high and buy low
Technically, ETH’s short-term objective trend currently looks like a narrow-range consolidation grind.
Defensive strategy: ETH’s first support on the short term is $1,890–$1,900 (recent high-activity traded zone). If a pullback into this range shows a “stop-the-fall” pattern, you can test a long position with a light position size; targets are $1,945–$1,960, with a strict stop-loss set below $1,880. If it effectively breaks below $1,850 (the near-term long “lifeline”), it means the weak mid-term structure is confirmed—abandon the bottom-catching idea immediately and forbid holding losers (“carry positions”).
Offensive strategy: The $1,980–$2,000 area overhead is the primary resistance zone (a concentrated short-term trapped-positions area). If the rebound reaches this range but lacks upward momentum, it’s suitable to test shorts in the short term. First take-profit is around $1,930, and stop-loss is set above $2,020. Until there is a breakout above $2,000, heavy long positions are strictly forbidden.
3、Keep a close watch on macro data and policy “start guns”
In the next few days, you can’t only stare at the candlestick chart. The Fed FOMC meeting from Tuesday to Wednesday this week (July 28–29) is the top priority. In an environment where rate-hike expectations are elevated, if the Fed truly releases a hawkish signal, the market could probe further downward. Around the 15 minutes before and after data releases, it’s recommended to stay flat and wait; enter only after the direction becomes clear. Don’t gamble on the data.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!