#夏日创作营 Nasdaq falls into an 11-week low, Bitcoin tracks down 2.5%: bond yield at 4.7% is siphoning liquidity out of risk assets

#夏日创作营 Nasdaq sinks into an 11-week low, Bitcoin slips in tandem down 2.5%: bond yields at 4.7% are drawing liquidity away from risk assets

On July 25, the crypto market faced pressure in tandem with US stocks. During the Asian trading session, Bitcoin slid to around $64,017, falling about 2.5% over the past 24 hours and giving back much of the gains accumulated in the previous few days. Just three days ago, Bitcoin had even tested near $66,900, giving bulls hope of returning to the $70,000 level, but this momentum was quickly interrupted by changes in the external macro environment. A sharp correction in US stock tech sectors was the trigger for this round of sell-off.
The Nasdaq 100 index closed the prior trading day at 28,128 points, marking its lowest closing level since early May. Concerns in the market that large tech companies are overextending on AI infrastructure are building—capital expenditure plans that can reach hundreds of billions of dollars not only squeeze near-term free cash flow, but also make already elevated leverage ratios look even more conspicuous. This sentiment is first being released within tech stocks, and then, like ripples, spreading to Bitcoin and other digital assets. After all, in an environment where risk appetite cools, crypto assets have long been regulars on institutions’ de-risking lists.
Fund flow data corroborates this view. SoSoValue data shows that as of the week of July 24, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs had dwindled to just $33 million, the weakest level in nearly three weeks. Compared with the earlier pace of inflows running into hundreds of millions of dollars, this figure looks especially cold. The absence of ETF buy-side demand leaves Bitcoin without an important buffer amid stock market volatility. On the other hand, the continued rise in risk-free yields further weakens the appeal of risk assets. The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.71%, holding at the highest level since January 2025. For large asset management institutions, when bonds can offer near-5% almost risk-free returns, chasing Bitcoin—whose volatility has long exceeded 50%—has an obviously high opportunity cost. Some funds have moved out of equities and the crypto market into fixed-income products, which to a certain extent also explains why Bitcoin, in recent US stock declines, has not received “safe-haven substitution” buying support as it has in the past.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently testing the uptrend line on the 4-hour chart that has extended since early July. If this support is effectively broken, market focus will quickly shift down to the $60,000 psychological level. Relative strength indicators on the 4-hour timeframe have slipped into the weak zone, showing that short-term sellers hold the initiative. What’s worth watching is that once price drops below around $63,000, the derivatives market may trigger a chain of long liquidations and stop-losses, further intensifying bearish momentum. Intraday trading volume is about $22.84 billion, and the sell-side share has risen noticeably, leaving market sentiment defensive. Looking back at this round of pullback, its root cause is not a new negative catalyst emerging within the crypto market, but rather the combined resonance of three factors: a valuation correction in tech stocks, bond yields surging higher, and a systematic cooldown in risk appetite.
In the short term, two key variables will determine whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 level: whether ETF funds can accelerate back in again, and whether US Treasury yields can continue pushing above 4.7%. If bond yields keep climbing, even if tech stocks stabilize, the pace of capital returning to the crypto market may still be slower than expected.