#直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes

Bitcoin 2026.07.25

1. Current market situation (spot BTC, current price $63,800–$64,300)

1. Intraday & 24-hour trend
The past 24 hours saw choppy downward movement. After the earlier high at 66,700, price continued to fall, repeatedly breaking two short-term support levels at 65,300 and 64,500. The low tested around 63,700. Ethereum’s decline outpaced BTC; funds have continued to flee to Bitcoin for safety. Altcoins broadly fell, and smaller-cap coins faced heavier sell pressure. Market features: rallies without volume, selloffs with rising volume; bullish counterattack momentum continues to fade, and the short-term trend has turned into weak, range-bound consolidation.
2. Market sentiment and position liquidation
The Fear & Greed Index is 27, deepening fear into the fear zone; bargain-hunting sentiment is weak. In the 24-hour derivatives market, there was concentrated liquidation of long positions, with no large-scale cascading liquidations observed. The 4-hour MACD green bars continue, bearish momentum remains, and indicators have not entered an oversold range, leaving potential for further downside tests.
3. ETF flows
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has maintained consecutive days of net inflows, but yesterday saw large net outflows. Institutions cashed in short-term profits; near term, there is a lack of sustained buying to provide support. However, on a weekly basis, it still remains in net inflow, and long-term capital has not exited in large numbers; there is still downside support from buyers.

2. Core key price levels

Short-term resistance (top-down)

1. Strong resistance: $65,600–$65,900 (once support breaks, it becomes core resistance; rebounds can hardly break through in one go)
2. Short-term resistance: $64,800–$65,000 (the first intraday hurdle)

Short-term support (bottom-up)

1. First support: $63,700–$63,900 (intraday lows; the short-term line dividing long and short)
2. Strong support: $63,000–$63,300 (the core lifeline of this rebound; a valid breakdown would mean this rebound structure is completely over)

3. Multi-factor logic driving both bulls and bears

Bullish factors

1. Weekly ETF flows still show net inflows; institutions’ long-term positioning logic at low levels has not changed. The 62,500 prior accumulation zone has dense bottom chips, limiting the room for a deep crash;
2. On-chain long-term holders’ positions remain stable; there has been no concentrated dumping by “whales”;
3. The market still retains expectations that long-term crypto regulatory policies will become more lenient, which restrains continued escalation of pessimism.

Today’s core bearish pressure

1. US Treasury yields remain high; rate-hike expectations are heating up, and the high-rate environment continues to suppress interest-free risk assets. Middle East geopolitical tensions are tight; rising oil prices increase inflation worries; funds prioritize allocating to gold for risk hedging;
2. The ETF has shifted from inflows to outflows, temporarily losing incremental institutional buying support;
3. Multiple attempts to break the $66,800 resistance failed, forming a double top. Short-term bullish confidence has collapsed, and profit-taking has continued to flee;
4. Global equities risk appetite is falling; risk assets face collective pressure, making it difficult for the crypto market to independently sustain a recovery trend;
5. Expectations for the Clarity Act’s implementation continue to cool down; regulatory uncertainty continues to suppress market sentiment.

4. Outlook by timeframe

1. Short term (1–3 days): Weak range-bound consolidation, testing the effectiveness of support
The main trading range is $63,000–$65,000. If the $63,700 support holds, a technical, modest correction may follow. If there is a valid breakdown of $63,300, this phase of the rebound is effectively over, and the downside target shifts toward the $62,500 prior bottom. To reverse the weakness, bulls need to regain $65,000 and do so with rising volume.
2. Medium term (1–4 weeks): Entering a direction-selection window
The long-term broad range-bound structure remains unchanged, but short-term bulls no longer have the edge. Two possible scenarios ahead: if $63,000 support holds, price stays in a large range consolidation; if support fails, it triggers a new round of deeper pullback.
3. Long term (quarterly scale)
The overall broad range-bound pattern remains unchanged, and the room for extreme, massive liquidation is limited. To start a new trend-leg higher, there needs to be a convergence of Federal Reserve policy turning point and major positive policy catalysts for the crypto industry; at this stage, the core driver is lacking.

5. Signals to watch next

1. Macro: volatility in US Treasury yields, Middle East situation, and crude oil prices; keep monitoring speeches by Fed officials;
2. Flows: whether spot ETFs can return to net inflows; derivatives liquidation size, and changes in long/short open interest;
3. Technicals: the strength of defense at the $63,700 support level, and whether the rebound can effectively reclaim the $65,000 resistance.