Realtalk.

I still think $JUP can go back to $1
But there's one huge problem:
Jupiter's cash cow (Perps) is dying. They completely slept on this market
A year ago, Perps generated around $8M/month. Today, a good month is closer to $3M. That's roughly $60M in annual revenue gone, representing more than 50% of the protocol's revenue.
Which brings us to the next issue:
Buybacks have become too small to have much economic or psychological impact
Jupiter allocates 50% of revenue to buybacks (and burns?), which currently annualizes to around $24M
Meanwhile, Hyperliquid uses 99% of protocol fees for buybacks, currently running at roughly $730M annualized
It's pretty clear Jupiter lost significant Perps market share, especially after the cancelled airdrop. What they need now is another spotlight product
Hyperliquid has a product that prints millions every month and has a clear vision: becoming the future of finance and trading
Jupiter has some of the best products in crypto, but it feels like they have a bit of everything without that one true unicorn that defines the ecosystem
You could argue Jupiter doesn't need one because it's becoming the onchain super app. That's a fair point
But then basically competing with centralized exchanges is incredibly difficult. They have deeper pockets, stronger incentives, better staking programs, and more resources
I really hope Jupiter surprises us with a banger, because at their current size I don't think the buybacks do anything
P.S. I like GUM, but I don't think it'll be that unicorn product. In my opinion, it's launching 2–3 years too late into a market that's already crowded with similar products
P.S. II. I'm a large $JUP holder and the #1 JUP bull poster, so this shouldn't be FUD. It's simply my honest assessment of where Jupiter stands today and the feedback I'd give the team