64000 mark sees repeated battles for control, AI is waiting for a confirmation

$BTC $ETH #比特币 #Market analysis

Brothers, there’s nothing new on the charts over the weekend—BTC is trading in a tight range around 64,000, with the average daily range narrowing to within 1,000 USD.

This week’s market review

First, let’s restore what happened this week.
At the start of the week, BTC was still above 67,000. It started falling around July 24, bottomed at 63,666 around July 25, and then stabilized at 64,000. Over the weekend, the price only fluctuated slightly in the 64,300–64,500 area. Volume shrank sharply, and liquidity is on the thin side.

Leverage got flushed out. This drop triggered $323 million in long liquidations, but on-chain data shows there wasn’t heavy spot selling—more leverage clean-up rather than panic dumping. Daily RSI once fell to the 25–28 range, which is a severely oversold condition.

But ETF flows are weakening. BTC+ETH ETFs saw outflows of $310 million on the same day, and BlackRock’s IBIT had redemptions of more than $400 million over two days. June’s total ETF outflows were $4.5 billion. While July has improved overall, in recent days institutional buying has been ebbing.

Key market variables

What is the market waiting for now?
The only core variable: the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.

The probability of rate hikes this week surged from 12.8% to 37.9%. If the Fed’s tone is hawkish, 65,000+ could become a medium-term top, and BTC has a chance to retrace to 62,000 and even 60,000. If the tone is neutral or dovish, it will trigger a wave of short-covering.

Key levels to sort out

Resistance overhead:
64,700–64,850 is the short-term line in the sand; both prior attempts to break higher failed there;
65,300–65,500 is the 4-hour moving average convergence resistance zone;
66,600–66,900 is the core supply area on the daily timeframe.

Support below:
64,100–64,300 is the first support (around the SMA20);
63,700–63,800 is the lower Bollinger band and the low point of this leg—if it breaks the box structure, the structure is damaged;
62,100–62,500 is deeper support; if that breaks, 60,000 will be exposed.

AIX today trading strategy

Bias: ranging to bearish, no trending setup.
Weekend volume is lighter, FOMC is approaching, and funds are waiting—there’s no one-way catalyst.

BTC trade idea:
Don’t chase longs near 64,000. Wait for two signals—
Either pullback into 63,700–63,800 shows stabilization and structure support for a small-position bounce trade;
Or a volume-backed breakout above 64,700 and holding, then wait for a pullback confirmation to add.

Stop loss is placed below 63,400. Targets are 64,500–64,700.

ETH trade idea:
At around 1,870 current price, support is at 1,850, resistance is 1,900–1,920.
The logic is the same as BTC—wait for a pullback or a breakout confirmation; don’t chase higher.

What if price directly breaks below 63,700?
Then just wait—wait for the next support area (62,500–62,800) signals before reassessing. In a downward trend, taking counter-trend long bottom-fishing risk is extremely high.

Short trade idea:
If the rebound reaches 64,700–64,800 and shows a stall/failed follow-through signal, you can try a small-position short. Stop loss above 65,050, target 64,000–64,100.

Core trading mindset

When the direction is unclear, not acting is the best strategy.
Wait for the FOMC to land, wait for direction to emerge, then move.

💬 Chat in the comments: before the FOMC, are you planning to act or wait?

My personal view only, not investment advice. The market is risky—responsibility is on you.
$BTC $ETH #比特币 #行情分析 #FOMC #AI trading