#夏日创作营

I. Current Market: Low-Volume Sideways Trading, Waiting for a Breakthrough

As of July 26, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $64,355–$64,750, while Ethereum (ETH) is around $1,872–$1,885. Both have fallen into an extreme low-volume sideways consolidation. Weekend trading volume has shrunk significantly, liquidity remains weak, and price action is mostly choppy within a narrow daily range. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 26–27, staying in the “Fear” zone.

II. Technical Outlook: BTC Stabilizing and Repairing the Range, ETH Weakly Tracks

BTC’s medium-to-long-term downtrend on the daily chart is still being pressured downward, but in the short term it has formed a mild repair pattern with slightly higher swing lows and highs. Price action is moving between $61,400–$62,600 (a $7 billion leverage-dense zone) and $65,000–$65,400 (a $5 billion leverage zone), with liquidity voids in the gap between. Daily RSI is about 25–28, sitting in a severely oversold range. Key support lies at $63,700–$64,000. Above, $65,000 is short-term resistance; only after reclaiming $65,500 can a stop-the-fall signal be confirmed.

ETH is clearly weaker than BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio remains around 0.029 and hovers at low levels, showing stronger capital preference for Bitcoin over Ethereum. The $1,905–$1,910 area above ETH is a near-term pressure zone, while $1,850 below is the core psychological and technical support. On-chain Gas fees are staying low at 2–3 Gwei; on-chain activity is quiet, lacking independent upside momentum supported by fundamentals.

III. Capital Flows: ETF Outflows Pressure the Market; After Leverage Cleansing, Stabilization Attempts

Capital flows are currently the biggest suppressing factor. Total net outflows from US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs exceed $310 million, and Bitcoin ETF weekly trading volume hit a 10-month low. Yesterday, BTC plunged from $65,705 to $63,666, triggering $323 million in liquidations, of which 84% were long positions—typical of a leverage-linked cascade liquidation rather than active selling. However, after the leverage cleansing, the market is attempting to stabilize and repair; BTC has rebounded slightly from the $63,666 low.

IV. Macro Factor: The FOMC Decision Becomes the Core Variable

The market’s biggest uncertainty comes from the Fed’s FOMC meeting on July 28–29. The market broadly expects interest rates to remain unchanged, but the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 82%, and the chairman’s remarks are likely to be hawkish. U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, weighing on risk assets broadly. In addition, the CLARITY bill has been pushed to September, causing short-term compliance expectations to fail.

V. Outlook for Later Moves

In the short term, ahead of the FOMC decision, the market is likely to keep its low-volume sideways structure. BTC’s trading range is expected to be $63,700–$65,200; ETH’s range is expected to be $1,835–$1,900.

The medium-term trend depends on the FOMC outcome: if a dovish signal is released, BTC could break above the $65,000 pressure level and challenge the $67,000–$68,000 area; if hawkish guidance comes in stronger than expected, BTC may break below the $63,700 support and test the $62,100–$62,500 range. ETH is highly correlated with BTC, with volatility about 1.2 times that of Bitcoin.

Overall, the market is currently in “calm before the storm”—leverage has been cleansed, sentiment remains in the Fear zone, and sidelines demand is heavy. Once the FOMC decision lands, it will very likely break the current sideways deadlock and guide the market’s direction from the short term into the medium term.