Bitcoin and Ethereum rose about 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively, over the past 24 hours, but set against the backdrop of the last three days (-1.66%) and the last seven days (-0.29%), the move is basically treading water. Bitcoin’s 7-day range is only 2.32%; today, the 24-hour range has been squeezed to 1.2%. Price is stuck around the 37% mark within the 7-day band—up and down without direction. This is not a “handshake” between bulls and bears; both sides are waiting for an external force strong enough to break the deadlock.

With the market this stuck, the most direct reason is that money is flowing out. Spot ETFs posted net outflows for two consecutive days of about $465 million, equivalent to institutions pulling the ladder away. ETFs have been the biggest source of Bitcoin buying over the past year or more. When these funds exit, it feels like the market has lost a load-bearing pillar, so it naturally struggles to surge higher.

Meanwhile, leverage hasn’t come down. Ethereum’s funding rate has risen to a six-month high, indicating that someone has borrowed too much in the derivatives market to bet on the trade. This crowded positioning is either waiting for a liquidation squeeze to blow up the shorts, or it gets flushed out first by a reverse move driven by volatility. Today’s liquidation amount is down by nearly 70% from the peak levels in the past few days—not because risk is gone, but because volatility is too low to trigger liquidations right now. If geopolitics or the macro backdrop takes an unexpected turn, these high-leverage positions are ready-made gunpowder.

Over the next few days, the real variable will be the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision at 2:00 a.m. on July 30. Market expectations for a rate cut have shifted from “when will it happen” to “will it still happen.” Trump’s tariff policy is lifting inflation expectations, giving the Fed reason to hold its ground. If Chair Powell sounds hawkish in the subsequent press conference, expectations for tighter dollar liquidity will further suppress risk assets, and Bitcoin’s $64,000 support level will have to withstand the test. Conversely, if the wording tilts dovish, a market that has been stuck in a range for too long could take the opportunity to make a move. But before that, most funds are choosing to stay along the sidelines and watch—preferring to miss the move rather than get strangled before the direction becomes clear. #夏日创作营